Was just over on the FFH board and realized I hadn't answered you yet. Not that I can. If nothing brutal happens, but there's no growth, I suppose I'd guess a price range similar to where it's been recently, 20-23. But I'm not predicting that.
In fact I'm not predicting anything. I just watch the dividend. With my long-term holdings, I take the approach that if the company doesn't cut the dividend, I'll buy more on any selloff, regardless of the reason it falls. A dividend cut changes makes any stock a sell, IMO.
Thank you ou71764:
The reason I asked was not if the management is OK nor conservative, but becuase of my holding in FFH, where I believe that while the mamagement is good, circumstances can - IF PROLONGED - force a stock to look like a piece of junk in the short term.
As you have noted, if one holds long term, all is forgiven, but long term is in the eyes of the beholder. FFH has been a 3 year case for me, and not all the stuff is finished yet. If, indeed the housing trend should turn out in fact to be a trend, instead of a 1 year correction, then these margins would be relevant.
However, reading your reply, and assuming that title insurance is, indeed new busines (whereas mortgage stuff is longer term), there would not seem to be much risk in ORI
except in terms of growth... (given that new business will be curtailled in some segments)..
So on a medium term, just what sort of pull-back would you expect if ORI is:
a) Not financially stressed
b) Ceases to grow for 6 quarters..
This is a question of timing any new purchases or just standing pat. I do not have unlimited funds (being about 15% cash), and would like to retain some flexiblity.
Gee, H_M, you're going to make me work. I hadn't looked much at the quarterly statement...once I did, I thought you had good questions. I'll throw in my 2 cents, but defer to anyone who's more knowledgeable on insurance.
They said that their title operations in the Western region of the country didn't cover their fixed costs there. ("The resulting production levels in those states have been lower than necessary to support the fixed portion of the operating expense structure.")
So if that extends to other areas, yes, it's theoretically possible to have a net loss on that segment of their business. But that's a function of new business, I believe. Defaults won't affect title revenue or profits.
I think defaults are an issue on the mortgage guaranty portion of the business.
But before I go any further analyzing this, all insurance companies are in the business of managing risk. ORI is above average in that regard, IMO.
This is a conservatively managed company that is shareholder-oriented. I don't pay much attention to the business or short-term trends. Like I said, I had barely glanced at the quarterly report. I trust the management and I expect them to worry about that stuff and adapt as required.
What I'm saying is that I'm not worried about the immediate future, or next year, or the year after. If someone is a short term owner of the stock, then, yes, they need to. I intend to be holding ORI not just next year, but 5 or 10 years from now...just like I am for JNJ, PG, and other stocks I own. These are companies that pay, and even more importantly, INCREASE their dividends, year after year -- for decades. They aren't in the business of going belly-up.
Frankly, I'm hoping for a bear market so I can buy more.
Congratulations to the regulars here and all ORI shareholders on the new highs in the stock.
Naturally you don't see the posters who briefly appeared at the time of the last split and special dividend who thought they could get some action. As I predicted then, they're long gone. If I'm wrong, please let yourselves be known.
An amusing but instructive feature of this board is the regular presence of "qtrnomore", whose posts I've always taken to mean that only fools would invest in something this boring. Yeah, this stock is boring -- boring like a fox. We win. You lose. No, I will not respond to any post you make in reply.
Best to ORI shareholders.