If we duplicate the bear market in ORI from 1998-2000, both in terms of duration and price move:
The low will be 8.38, and we'll hit it on November 18 of this year. On April 6, 2009, the price will be more than double the low, or 17.35.
Of course we won't do that exactly. It could be better or worse. But I do think that we're nearing a low. And you do have to ask youself who was selling in March, 2000, when the stock was about to double by July, 2000. Sentiment and price moves always go WAY too far, both in bear and bull markets.
I may have seen your name on WSC. I have also followed the boards on SCX, NPK, FLXS, FARM, ITIC, IAL (no longer publicly owned),OFLX,SUP, SNS and a couple of real dogs SFPI.PK and HORT.PK. I don't currently own any of these and I wouldn't necessarily recommend them. I do own a lot of BRKB and much smaller amounts of BP and PFFB.OB. PFFB.OB is a special situation that is supposed to be bought by September 30. I may buy more of it if the buy out becomes more certain.
I am inclined to agree with you about the financials. They do look cheap if you could just be certain that they won't go bankrupt first. I have managed to avoid most of the problems in lending and real estate. I sold my house in September 2004 and have been renting since because I thought the real estate and lending situation in California where I live was completely out of hand. It took a while, but at this point I will claim that I was right.
Don't know. I used to frequent BRK.A board. (I don't own a-share.) Then I dived to many down-trodden boards, as my attention drifted to un-followed or unloved stocks. I moved around, or was absent at times.
Being that ORI is insurer, I delved in LUK before it sold Empire State, also BRK, WSC, WTM, AMSF, RDN.
I am keeping an eye on the financials--banks, lenders, insurers, etc. Boy, are they cheap! The financial sector is going to stabilize, last man standing gets the prize.
Greetings, Pmlljl, Japan had a spectacular ten fold rise in RE during the boon. Many banks and insurers kept RE holdings on theirs books marked-to-market. When the bubble burst, many were immediately became insolvent. Far, far worse than the effect of doubling and the subsequent fall in the US. That said, many lose lending during that time are coming home to roost. You are right, we ain't seen the end of it yet. I don't foresee any drawn out recession, neither a short-and-sweet dip. The equity won't hit the bottom for at least another year. The severity and length of the down turn is not yet evident, far less the projected equity for RDN. I am expecting continued underwriting would eventually tie it over. Should the GSEs cut it off, my bets are off.