According to Al Zucaro in the conf. call, the shares in the new company should show up in everyone's account in July. The spinoff won't be worth much, according to Al. And because of that, they made it taxable.
Any litigation with the mortgage insurance business goes with the spinoff. Bank of America has a lawsuit against the MI division. That goes with the new company. But lawsuits on the consumer credit division remain with ORI. Al said he didn't think the litigation against the cc division had merit.
I think Wall Street will want to see how ORI w/o the toxic pieces looks before it bids up the shares too high. Especially with Europe still hanging over the markets.
But IMO the stock will move higher than 11. The .88 in operating earnings (in the divisions w/o MI) was for 2011. Over time that will improve. Like all stocks, Wall Street will continue to evaluate the company's progress quarter by quarter.
This is the first time in a long time that I've felt I can quit worrying about the dividend and the company's future. I think this restructuring is extremely good news! Al is not a dynamic speaker. But I think he plodded forward like an old oxen until he got the wagon old of the mud.
I totally agree it could be worth more than 11. I have basically the same feelings as the seekingalpha author, I value it with 11 being the very minimum. In a situation where the economy stays very muted, not much improvement, etc, I can still see 11. In a situation where we see growth in the economy, more jobs, etc, I think after the spin off we could see a good re-valuation to much higher (14-15).
Also agree with you on the dividend. Hopefully the spin-off will make it clear to the market that the dividend is covered by the title and general segments.