First of all, I don't think they'll have to do either. Like I said, there is no incentive for anyone to force the MI division into bankruptcy. The court would either do what's alreadty happening - or even worse, the creditors could get less or nothing.
Second, I understand your general statement that a new creditor might try to implement restrictions with a loan - which might include a dividend cut. But that assumes ORI would not be in the driver's seat and wouldn't have more than one possible source. I don't believe that's true.
ORI retiredover $300 million in debt already this year. I believe their balance sheet is strengthening. This isn't 2008 where ORI is looking bleak with all the other financial companies, when credit had dried up.
And with their cash flow improving, sans the MI division, I think they'd be able to borrow the money. They could always do it through bonds, and not a bank loan, if the banks were too stingy.