I'm no chartist, but my gut feeling is that we won't see a bottom above 16-14 area at best. Charting just tells you where a stock has been, not where it's going. Kinda like driving a car while looking only in the rearview mirror. In this market, there's no reason to be a hurry to buy anything. Given the damage done to the overall economy by idiots like Greenspan, we could be in the early stage of a multi-year bear market.
Given we are now in a part of GOLs chart where there basically isn't support now below. And in these difficult markets, quite often the emerging market stocks get taken out to the woodshed and boot stomped into the ground when folks in the US have to sell off things to cut their losses and raise cash to make margin calls et al.
As for for 14-16, quite possible in this environment. Given how fast the market is tanking overall (and the US Feds again sitting on their butts talking off of their heads about doing something but not really being in a hurry to deal with reality on main street), its quite possible things could get rather nasty the next two weeks.
Who knows, by then 14-16 might look pretty good depending on how far things sink.
I'm still thinking there is some sort of snap back rally out there for these stocks between now and then that might pump things back up a few points, but right now the market is waiting for catalysts from folks that can't figure their way out of a brown paper sack at the moment.
Only thing I hope is that the mortage insurers that are under big pressure right now don't collapse in BK between now and the end of January or we could get hit with one of those downdrafts afterwards that our grandchildren will be reading about in their history books with pictures of people jumping out the windows again.