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GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. Message Board

  • seadreams1956 seadreams1956 Jul 19, 2012 11:21 AM Flag

    coming back

    Should close tomorrow at around 4.75 Hope so anyway. Layoffs, increased load factors, reduced fuel costs all should help this come back up in the mid 5's within the next couple of weeks. Expect financials to beat expectations, ie a loss but not as bad as expected. GL to all longs.

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    • Even though down .21 at this time, I still believe we will be above 5 in next couple of weeks. Of course market down over 100 as I speak.

      • 1 Reply to seadreams1956
      • Good buying opportunity here if you're willing to hold for awhile. I think the crux of a long play on GOL is Brazil's interest rate being cut again and again. You've got an airline that mainly deals with the local currency but with debt denominated in USD. When the Brazilian govt cuts rates, it puts more BReals into the system (govt securities not earning as much anymore...and less...and less with each rate cut, so banks/co. look elsewhere for investments, hell, maybe even lend!), lowering the ability of your revenue source to pay off USD-denom. debt. GOL really needs a stronger Real against the dollar, so any kind of news regarding a leveling out of the Brazilian interest rates would be positive news. That, coupled with the somewhat lower oil prices (that won't last) and upcoming catalysts in terms of one-time events world cup & Olympics.

        Another rate cut may happen which would help keep GOL's stock price depressed. Competition is getting pretty fierce in Baxi too. Also, are they going to announce a cut of the dividend to 0 or what? That will annoy any bigger shareholder, might look at LFL or COPA instead. If you have room for a fairly risky investment with a long-ish investment horizon, I would buy anywhere around here and hold.

        What are your thoughts?

16.44-0.48(-2.84%)Jul 25 4:02 PMEDT