What European banks have the greatest solvency risks related to the European sovereign debt? Which of those have a Euronext or US exchange symbol? So far I have been watching Santander (STD) and Credit Agricole (ACA.EU).
Do you think that a 21% debt writedown will be the final chapter? Do you think that Greece can repay 79% of its current sovereign debt? I have read they would need a 60% writedown to have any hope of paying it all off, given their lack of export industries and lack of economic growth. They could inflate their way out of some of it if they could print currency, but they cannot.
A 21% debt writedown might create a short term bottom in NBG. I'm not convinced that this would end up being anything more than the start of a new chapter and not the start of any permanent recovery for the stock.
Do you have a copy of the contract between NBG and the Greek government? How can you base an investment on your feeling about what politically-motivated actions a government will take with its own banks?
NBG as a bank will survive. The question is will your shares be diluted 10-to-1 in order to make that possible.