"Correct me if I am wrong, but PV-10 calcs stipulate that a forward value of $2 should be used for NG."
You are wrong. If I remember correctly it's based on the price during the last x quarters. Why would you have to use $2?
As for another cold winter, it really depends whether they manage to completely fill storage during injection season. So probably whether the summer is very hot is of more immediate relevance than next winter.
Liza is wrong, it's base purely on whatever number they decide to use (usually a conservative guesstimate based on current prices when the annual report is prepared). It could be higher or lower than trailing or expected. In this case, they were using $2.
You are wrong. PV 10 is based on the price through the trust's life. The projected price isrelevant than the trailing price is not. You must be confusing P/E valuations. if the price projuected is $8, the PV10 is based on $8. it does not matter if the trailing price is $3.