Another first post. I am trying to diversify my portfolio and at the same time make it more conservative. I do not understand why SHY has been going up since July 2007, and I do not know what events are likely to predict or cause a downturn. Will someone please contribute to my education? Thank you.
Sure, this isn't a bad place to park your money. I might get in soon. As interest rates go down, treasury prices go up. If you remember treausuries used to pay 5% now they are down to about 3.5%, this pushes up the price of the treasury. In a recession, people look for safe havens to place money, as mone people buy treauries, the yield goes down and prices go up because demand goes up. The last recession in 2000-2002 treauries averaged about 10% a year. I think this is a good place to get 6-7% over the next 12 months.
i've been trading bonds for a decade now , do not buy shy right now . Short term t's have little upside and lot's of down side right ! This is the fund you buy in a bull- market ! Not a bear - the trade is done . Wait till price comes down .