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First Bancorp Message Board

  • miamigent1 miamigent1 Sep 21, 2013 12:57 AM Flag

    FBP oversold at 6.07

    FBP oversold at 6.07

    *RSI under 30
    *Long term positive divergence
    *Friday volume 8.4 x's 90 DAV
    *Friday close a 30% pullback from late July high
    *At 200 SMA
    *Re-sale of 28M shares in Aug had no affect on financials
    *Book value 7.20
    *PPS up 43% YTD

    Good risk to reward ratio, imo

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    • FBP Just bailed at 5.74 from 6.11- banks have left the house.
      Guess I better go with the market rather than call the market.
      Good call deep_value_investor.


    • Have you seen the panic selling lately in the Puerto Rico municipal bond market lately? New lows there on Friday. That's why FBP is down.

      • 1 Reply to deep_value_investor
      • Very interesting, deep_value_investor, makes sense. And I think there was also a general day long sell off Friday due to the budget posturing in Washington- they have to get something passed by Oct 1, I believe.
        I just checked the latest 10Q and we look OK- only 3.5% ($70M) of FBP's $2B+ in "Investment Securities" is tagged "Puerto Rico Government Securities". I did not go deep enough to see whether these were "Commonwealth of Puerto Rico" (I would think safe) or municipalities (not so safe).
        FBP is showing "unrealized losses" on these as $3.5M as of June 30th- losses in value of the bonds I imagine rather than defaults.
        I want to say we are OK as the vast majority of FBP's securities are US Gov't backed but wait a minute- the US may be shut down in nine days! I'mnot even going to lol that.
        Thanks for the insight dvi- helpful.
        I think my 6.18 avg buy in Friday will be good- the mkt will tell me in about 12 hours.

    • FBP FIRST BANCORP Puerto Rico...

      oversold at Friday's close of 6.07

      FURTHER DD...

      *RSI under 30 Friday (oversold past 6 weeks)
      *Long term positive divergence- wants to reverse
      *Friday close a 30% pullback from late July 8.70 high
      *Negligible short interest (1.86%)
      *At 200 SMA support on 6 month daily chart
      *Ten day average volume running twice 90 DAV
      *Resale of 28M shares at 6.75 in Aug had no affect on OS/financials. Insiders bought at 6.75
      *76.3% top instit owned (Fidelity $73M, Vanguard 64M, etc)
      *Earning $50M qtr- pre tax, pre provision
      *Strong capital ratios, $835M cash & equivalents recent 10Q
      *Book value 7.17
      *Targets $9 (BoA) - 10 (Credit Suisse)
      *PPS up 43% YTD

      Catch an early-mid stage, sm cap ($1.3B) bank recovery stock on a pullback!
      In Fri @ 6.18 net average- anticipating a rally.
      Good reward to risk ratio, imo.


4.69-0.02(-0.42%)Aug 23 4:02 PMEDT