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Ford Motor Co. Message Board

  • benanneeve benanneeve Sep 14, 2006 11:38 AM Flag


    1) Ford has $23 billion in cash or $12.50/share
    2) GM has $20 billion in cash or $35.50/share

    Hence, both can handle the short-term loss due to the turnaround

    Both are trading at .1 times revenue�however:

    3) Daimler Chrysler is trading at .25 times revenue
    4) Toyota is trading at .93 times revenue
    5) Honda is trading at 1.3 times revenue
    6) Fiat is trading at .3 times revenue, and
    7) Volkswagen is trading at 2.1 times revenue

    At the low end of the competitors price per sales, or .25 times revenue, the stock price would be as follows:

    8) Ford Revenue is nearly $177 billion X .25 = $25.00/share (1.8 billion shares outstanding)
    9) GM Revenue is nearly $192 billion X .25 = $85.00/share (565 million shares outstanding)

    Again, that�s at the low end of the competitor range�even if sales drop a small percentage for either company�my estimation is you want to long these now.

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    • Your annalysis sounds very good, hope you're right. I've been long since June. Also have CTB.

    • These are mature companies i.e. they should not be trading based off revenues. I could generate $177 billion in revenue if I sold you a dollar for fifty cents. These companies need earnings.

      Ford needs to prove they can profit by selling cars, which they have not done yet. Furthermore, even though Ford has $23 billion in cash, they have over $100 billion in current liabilities. Are they going to meet these liabilities. Right now, the market seems to think so.

    • Excellent post. GM or FORD would have five times the value if they could resolve the UAW stranglehold.

      The death grip of the UAW is so deadly and so overpowering that neither company can even put out honest numbers about the real costs of the UAW contracts.

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