They are losing market share at an ever increasing monthly rate. The industry average for sales increases is 13% this year over last year. Ford is at 7%. Right now they admit they cannot build enough cars for the US demand which may be construed as a miscalculation on their part for factory shutdowns. The continual loss of market share in their best market is a growing problem.
Remember that baked into 2012 numbers is the one time situation with Toyota and Honda coming back on stream with inventory in the US following the Sunami. Toyota and Honda are throwing the figures off. Ford is doing great and just now ramping up sales on their new models and designs. China is coming on strong for them as well. Debt reduction will be an earnings per share helper as well. Ford is going to have a great 2013. Europe is the only thing keeping this stock from rising quickly to $20 and they have put actions in place to address that as best they can. The market senses it as well driving Ford up in the face of dow declines. Q4 earnings released Q1 will tell us if they have a handle on Europe yet.
If you think the recent rise is "market" driven, I've got a bridge to sell you. You don't have a volume increase like this with no corresponding news without some big insider wheeling and dealing going on. Whether this was a concerted effort by hedge funds or institutions or some other wall street shenanigans...you'll never know. The increased price with huge volume happening all at once reeks of "insider knowledge" of something...You'll likely find out much later down the line and could be in for the same Q4 2010 outcome...
Without a big infrastructure investment, doubtful. Adding a 3rd shift isn't going to be enough. Their internal forecasts for the resurgence in auto sales didn't match their capacity in the end. They are at half the increase of the industry average. No amount of added shifts will close that gap.