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Ford Motor Co. Message Board

  • iluvamuffin Mar 18, 2013 9:28 AM Flag

    Ford and the market today,

    Very interesting, nothing but good articles out today about Ford and what a great buy it is and yet in pre market it's down percentage wise far more than its competitors. I just can't quite figure out the boys that set the price, i guess they didn't read the same articles as I did, imho buy Ford.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • muffin, some people may be nervous about the market as a whole, with certain parts maybe having gone too high too fast, so the nervous ones err by selling a bit of everything in their portfolio instead of just the over-valued stuff.

      Ford did not join in the run-ups for housing and regional banks Feb-Mar, so should be safeish, as indicated by its low P/E. There are other things to protect F's price, all the points about Ford made in those articles, Ford's dividend in particular, but in-between, prices might bounce around a bit.

      Aiding F's safety, yields on 10-year US Treasuries, given at Yahoo by ^TNX, have varied between 1.8% and 2.1% since Jan). Yet, Ford pays considerably more than do those bonds (example--over 2.8% for any investor who pays $14.2/share to get the 40 cent div) and, as Moe notes, has good prospects for raising its dividend after Europes settles out (Europe's bottom still expected mid-summer???)

      JB, Shaggy's mom

    • c.huish123 Mar 19, 2013 5:23 PM Flag

      yeah, but don't they have to pay $750 million(Almost $ Billion) to close the Belgium plant????How much money do they have? Not verymuch in the bank from what I can see -

      • 1 Reply to c.huish123
      • c.huish123- Key Statistics at yahoo said Ford had, on the balance sheet at the end of the last quarter, $24 billion in "cash and near-cash" (including short-term, relatively liquid assets) . Raw cash sitting in the bank varied from $13.5 bil to $15.7 bil this past year. If your cited 3/4 of a billion is correct for the Ghent plant closing, it uses up under 5% of Ford's raw cash and even less of the cash/near-cash.

        JB, Shaggy's mom

    • Anyone think Ford might do a share buyback if the share price remains in the $12-13 range? I have been of the mind they would be more apt to increase the dividend but with the shares trailing its peers maybe a share buyback is a possibility?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to bstaurrey
      • I don't think either will occur for a stretch. Focus seems to be on piling cash into the underfunded pension ASAP. Their recent IR call made light of their intentions as such. They also discussed a correlation of stock price performance of co.'s who had fully funded pensions vs. underfunded peers. I can see a bump in divy once Europe is on a solid rebound and China ramps in 2014 so give it about 12-18 months. Ford Europe dropping -20% February YOY sales has been a nasty deeper down trend since December's ugly. It isn't getting better, it is getting worse.

        Don't expect any miracle change in earnings day price action as Europe losses have headlined Ford's earnings reports no matter the U.S. performance. Ford set for a manure move going into the Summer doldrum months. Looking to buy with both fists by end of Summer for a run to 2015.

    • How long has it been since Ford moved on fundamentals?... I think it was before GM's IPO... The recent movement has been cyclical and subject to market fears... We had a great run up into the new year and a pull back shouldn't be a surprise... I have to wonder if the summer sell off pattern will repeat again this year... Profits taken in January could be a buying opportunity in July.

    • Ford stock movement is certainly a hard one to figure out. I have been reading articles lately about the energy boom potentials we have in the States and within 5 years we might be totally off imported oil except for Canada. These articles state how manufacturing will be brought back as well as a significant drop in oil prices but yet oil still keeps going up or at best the price stays stagnant above $90/barrel. Some things just don't react positively to good news.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to lovelincolns
      • Sometimes there seems to be very little rhyme or reason for F movement. But I love what the company is doing, especially their actions and attitudes towards long term goals and obligations. The price can't stay down forever, and in the meantime at the very least I'll be reinvesting all divvies.

      • Oil must stay in the upper 70's and above to continue the big oil fracking push. Many uninformed believe fracking is new but the earliest known frac occurred in 1947. What is newer is the horizontal drilling which now coupled with fracking opens up a whole new way to extract deposits. Have oilfield friends who laughed at all the headlines about the big discoveries in Canada and Dakotas shale formations. The oil bunch has known about the deposits for decades but two limitations - the means to physically extract them in an efficient manner AND a high enough price for oil to produce a profit using the more expensive technology. $50 barrel oil or lower will kill the exploration industry and limit production. My point, some of those articles you have been reading don't give both sides of the coin or portray the full scene.

        If you are really interested then you should watch the Shell exploratory wells being drilled off the north coast of Alaska - massive deposit discovery could be a market changer in the course of a few years. The cheaply extracted conventional oil is pretty much gone (low hanging fruit on the tree) and now the globe is turning to harder to find and extract deposits-fracking and deep sea (higher, harder to reach fruit on the tree) just as China is developing an oil addiction like the U.S. has been on for many decades. Bill Ford is in the same boat as Warren Buffett when it comes to future outlook of the auto sector. Both have predicted massive change coming with references mostly to electric over the next couple decades.

      • I am of that notion, too, lovelincolns. Lots of positive articles and not just a drop, but more than one would expect. I can only guess it has something to do with Europe, but nothing significant has changed about that concern just over the past weekend. Ford has the #1 and #2 selling vehicle in the UK. They had an increase in retial market share in the 19 Euro countries last month.

        As far as domestic oil production goes, no reason to think gasoline will be any cheaper, or any more cheaper than 50 cents or so. The oil companies will be able to acquire oil cheaper in the US and without concern for middle east events with a domestic supply, but if the market value of a barrel of oil is $95 they will still charge their refineries that $95, even if it is cheaper with less shipping costs (no transatlantic) and without being reemed by middle eastern countries. I expect any drop in gas prices as a result of oil independence to be minimal. Market price will still be respected/savored.

        Bagboy52, as far as work on fundamentals goes, don't forget the investment in China (money already allocated now), ongoing revampng of Lincoln, restructuring for European operations, and also the way Ford brings a vehicle to market is still undergoing efficiency and quality improvements.


    • The cyprus thing is forcing the whole market down. I don't know why Ford is falling more than its competitors. At this point I think Ford is a long term appreciation play but I will enjoy the dividend growth that I expect with this stock. If you are in at these levels or below I think you will be realizing a 5-6% dividend pay out before the end of 2014.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I wonder why the big drop.

12.17-0.01(-0.08%)Sep 23 4:01 PMEDT