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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • laurie7715 laurie7715 Oct 28, 2002 4:35 PM Flag

    What is the lay off count ?

    With 58K employess figured about 5,800 would be layed off,that is about 10% that is usually the norm maybe a little less. Do they keep a count ? This could help or hurt the bottom line? Do thye keep count and report these figures ? Just wondering.

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    • Yes, you make a good point there. But hopefully the COP dependence on downstream won't last much longer, as the new CEO told the street he was going to make upstream a much larger % of the new COP. This is another promise the street is waiting to see action on, but obviously very little substance or details to the talk so far. We have been told to wait for the analysts meeting in a couple of weeks, when all will be exposed to the public for the first time.

      It will take 12 to 18 months for the economy and airlines to show any real improvement, so COP can't wait that long.

    • Ahh, but COP has a much higher percentage of its business tied up in downstream North America than XOM, RD, or CVX.
      Refining margins in the USA thus have a much heavier impact on COP profitability than the other super majors.
      If the demand returns in the USA (cold winter, airlines recover, economy bounces back)then the margins will return and COP will have an advantage. Refining utilization is maxed out and new low-sulfur fuel regulations being implemented will pressure older, smaller refineries to shut down.

      The upswing might just be a mighty one.

    • That could be a possible technical explanation at this stage, but still XOM, RD and CVX have not been down as much lately(actually up) and those aren't that much smaller a U.S. downstreamer than COP. Time will tell, I personally don't think the LOS or Maya diffs will improve much in the next 12 months.

    • I view the stock price slump as:
      1. Refining margins are drawing the oils down.
      2. COP is the largest refiner in the USA (where the margins are the worst).

      Now, we need to see when (if) the refining margins increase if COP will rise faster than the pack. (A refining handicap becomes a benefit)

    • Well actually, IMHO, no the market has not fully valued the combined company. If it had, there would only be down side, and I think there is a good value play to be made here. Here's my logic, and you can make your own analysis and interpretations if you choose:

      My analysis indicates that after the merger announcement, COC and P both followed the fundamentals like the majors (XOM,BP,RD,CVX, and as a matter of fact was in the top quartile in stock price performance. From the November announcement until after the boards and shareholders voted, COC and P did better than any. However, this slipped somewhat after the shareholder and board votes. I interpret this stock behaviour to the partial removal of the "takeover premium" that was built into the stock price, on speculation that someone would make an open market bid to take one or the other. Still, COC and P from Nov.2001 to end August 2002 had better price performance than any major except BP. I think that even up until the FTC finally cleared the merger, some premium was still there, although much less than before March.

      Now, since the merger was closed in early Sept., COP has languished at the bottom of the majors. As of the close today, it is down 9%, while XOM and RD are up 3%, CVX is down 4%, and only BP (down 12%) has done worse.
      I interpret this as the market taking away the takeover premium and waiting for the newly combined company to perform along the lines of the promises made. The first combined performance report(the third quarter) was only one month combined and had much confusion from write-offs and little information, so no bump yet.

      So, I believe enough in this combined company performing and meeting it's promises, that I took a speculative position to see if the value gap gets closed (synergies) and the performance goes back to upper quartile. If it does, there is good intermediate term profit in this stock, if it doesn't, look for any early warnings of problems and unload.

    • I will jump in here and throw my two cents in on global warming. I do believe in all my heart that human activities have a major impact on the condition of the earth. We are part of the environment and thus have an affect on it.

      Global warming is part of a natural trend that occurs through out earth's history, similar to the changing of the magnetic poles on a regular basis.

      How much effect our activities have is still up for debate. Wonderful thing about science is it can be used and analyzed many different ways to get an answer. Sometimes, bias gets in the way of how you understand the information that is presented.

      We can do a better job of cleaning up after ourselves and quit littering in our own home(earth). One of my pet peeves is people who litter and can't be bothered to put trash in the trash bin. I call them "trashy" people.

      In the long run anything we can do to clean up our mess and improve the environment will benefit us not only environmentally but economically as well also.

      Oil is a finite resource than needs to be used more effectively than it is today and we must make use of all the tools we have to promote energy efficiency to hoard the resource..

      Environmental issues should not be us against them but a universal commitment to use all the talents available to us be more efficient in the use of our natural resourses.

      The question of the have and have nots is another issue that should not be tied up in the environmental questions. I believe that is more economics than anything else. It would benefit everyone if the world had better living conditions not just some areas.

      Enough preaching.

      Thank you for letting put in my two cents worth.

    • lol..... I understand 'wrath of a woman scorned'.

      And she has stated in other posts that she can kick a mans a$$. Hmmmm...maybe I didn't have my mind 'right' when I read the posts the first time around!!

      Doesn't that female wrestler 'china' charge people/customers a fee for coming over to their house and roughing them up?? Does sooner wraaasle?

    • I think Lilly meant 13712, or at least I would have meant that one, so check it out as well.

    • Please refer to post #13722

    • BTW, you don't know if I am a boomer or x'er. Hell even I don't know, depends on whose definition you use. But who cares what you were "taught". Because the next generation always had it better, you expect that to continue? Esp. if the next generation does not work for it? My parents were better off than theirs. I am better off than my parents. My kids? All depends on many things. Some they control, a few I can almost control, most depend on other things.

      Now about my fear of speaking out -- please let my boss know. She thinks I already share too much at times.

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