Only the Fed would think we need a rate move up. Oil cost are killing us now.This is a time to go to less oil use,and do it now. Build Nukes and do not burn gas for power.
Did I say anything about influencing the Gov or the stock? I was just trying to influence ledakh regarding the subjects on this board.
As for pouv, he's till posting on the xom board so he gets plenty of amusement.
I apologize for my previous non-COP subject.
COP is not a completed work. Jim Mulva stated that he wants upstream to be larger relative to downstream. COP can grow and/or buy EP assets and reserves. I like the growth idea but in reality purchase is probably part of the mix. Long term we need to FIND it.
Refining is large. The initial plan was to spin off or JV the much smaller refining division then in place. Spinoff is still possible and many upstream oriented folks would like to divest refining but I don't see that soon. Refining profits should remain strong as long as usage remains at or near current levels.
I don't like the divestment of retail. I think I understand the pro's and con's but like it or not retail will be mostly divested. Heritage P was never good at it anyway; hC stations generally looked better but ?.
The economics of oil have long favored EP. Bigger risks should favor bigger rewards. Like it or not refining, marketing and transportation are needed. The consumer will not buy crude oil for his car and will not go to Alaska to buy it.
Long term success for COP will come when each segment of the business is run as effectively as possible.
COP's PE will go up when investors percieve that the investment rates it. Present ups and downs can only be related to investor perception of industrywide factors like crude price stability.
I think that investment in COP has a better potential (read probable) total return as the company grows and proves itself. XOM will define the industry. CVX will follow but it seems to me that COP has the best chance to really appreciate.
My worm's eye view.
Saddam's weapons were common knowledge for many years. They were often reported and investigated by the media; UN inspectors; the Whitehouse and Congress; both parties; other governments. Before the invasion I never heard even one mention of the weapons being non-existant.
Some have said that after Gulf 1 the weapons were destroyed by Saddam. I believe destruction of some of the weapons is documented. If Iraq was free of WMD; Saddam's government had only to cooperate with UN inspectors. They refused cooperation probably because they wanted the confusion, even if they never had or no longer had the weapons. I think Saddam routinely used disinformation. Perception can be powerful even if wrongly based.
So WMD seems to me to be a very big failure of intelligence. Not just ours but others also.
Saddam is our enemy and has been for many years; including times when our government tried to use him against other enemies. I think George sr. should have chased him out of power in '91.
We are no longer fighting Saddam. Nor are we fighting only dissident Iraqis. The war did not start with our invasion; it did not begin with 9/11; and not with Gulf 1 either. The war will not end even if we succede in setting up a stable peaceable regime in Iraq. We are in a long term struggle with militant "wahabi" (spelling?) Islam. This sect does not represent all of Islam; but it wants to dominate Islam and it's ultimate vision is to convert all of us to it's form of Islam on pain of death. (PC wise: I do not hate Islam, but I greatly fear the wahabis. All should, especially other Islamic people.)
Saddam was only a tool for them to use against us. I think the true wahabis hated Saddam (Refer to the war with Iran). We are all well rid of him.
We deposed our enemy. He was a man believed by all to own chemical and biological weapons (perhaps even nuclear weapons). He fostered that belief. He incited against us. He oppressed and murdered his people and tried to spread his oppression. He aided our enemies and certainly encouraged that belief. We did the right thing. It hurts. Young, strong, vibrant, loving, intelligent soldiers have died and will continue to die. The price is terrible but we must pay. Right and wrong is not a matter of opinion or convenience.
You are right we shouldn't have gone into Iraq. And IMO we should get out asap and let them solve it. Read Ralph Peters book "Beyond Terror" for a better approach.
But really, this isn't the XOM board where one can argue this topic 24-7. It would be nice to keep this board for oil and COP.
The problem with these debates is that republicans rush to make it a contest. It is always the republicans versus the democrats. All of the counter arguments so far have consisted of attacks on democrats and liberals, rather than defending the bush administration's policies at face value. Somehow in their mind, Bush's shortcomings can be justified by pointing out the shortcomings in their opponents. And these shortcomings have been supplied via Rush Limbaugh and Fox news with innane 20 second sound bites.
The problem with this view is that I do not see it as a democrat versus republican issue. I see us all on the same team. We are americans. I am not a fan of Clinton, and I do not think the democrats are going to solve all of our problems. But I pointed out a number of criticisms of the current administration and most of the counter arguments avoided defending bush's action for what they were intrinisically, but rather by arguing on the hypocrisy of democrats. Somehow that makes bush's actions okay? Good for fox news ratings to generate animosity towards their liberal opponents, but it does us typical americans no good when our economic, international standing/reputation, and personal liberities are being flushed down the toilet. But who cares, "let's kick those liberal asses...that will show them."
In the end we are all left paying the price together. I just want to make wise investment decisions and financial decision making should not cater to political ideology.
Just my opinion.