To me it's a stock to own long but if you need the $ it beats a loan so take your 10+%. I agree it may go down now for awhile. I have an order for DUG if it increases tomorrow. Wouldn't you rather just add more on a downswing even if it's a little if you can afford it? Sooner or later PSX wii surge too.
I have held COP for more than 10 years, converted from TOSCO I started buying in the 90's. In 1998 Tosco was paying $13/brl and gas in the SF bay area was just over a dollar($1,25 seems close) Since then, world demand has increased 10 fold along with the crude price. No matter how much drilling takes place we are still on the back side of the peak oil curve which means that for every additional barrel of oil we take out of the ground, it will be invreasingly more expensive that the previous barrel. If you haven't noticed by now, I beleive that the stock is at least a very good hold. I think this opinion is a bit overstated, buut the logic is true: http://beta.fool.com/quantemonics/2012/03/21/crude-oil-going-500-barrel-part-2/3024/?source=eogyholnk0000001
If you like short term volitility and crazy dividen then I would look at companies like FRO or VLCCF. You can make money playing short term on COP but for all that work I'd look elsewhere.
I believe we are past peak too, only problem is about half of US politicians think that is hilarious. You make good points but don't forget the future water issue could affect the oil industry too. I'm still a buyer but prefer MRO.
I've been considering this as well...You can't argue with a %13 profit. I am also of the belief that post split there might be some dumping / repositioning of shares into 1 company or the other that could drive down price short term. However that is purely speculation. Anyone else have any thoughts?