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ConocoPhillips Message Board

  • peter.hebard peter.hebard Jan 29, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    COP earnings before the bell tomorrow

    COP is basically treading water today ahead of earnings. Analysts are split on whether earning will be up or down. Any insights?

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    • Sure. Why not? As you probably already know, the company revised - downwards - their 4Q production estimates (weather and geo-political related) on 1/7 - causing analysts to cut EPS estimates to $1.31/share and revenues to $15.1 B. (Which should make next year's 4Q comps a Slam Dunk!)

      I think they were too aggressive. Even though COP locks in the price for much of their production using the futures markets, the rest was given a boost by generally higher prices in the spot markets.

      If you're one of those that didn't lock in the cost for this winter's heating needs, you already know what I'm talking about. OUCH!

      Further, people tend to forget that COP is the 7th largest holder of proven NatGas reserves - which is a good thing If you listened to last night's State of The Union address…

      Additionally, I look for insight into their major expansion projects already underway - particularly their estimates for cost of production vs. their existing operations. I suspect the Canadian fields will be less, allowing for greater margin expansion…

      Finally, if you've followed this company at all over the years, you already know they routinely increase the dividend - every year - or so.

      There's more, but the key take-aways for me are: a slight beat on both Revs and EPS. No surprises on guidance. And a return to the $70s.

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