"I hear ya, but your essentially telling me that one business day letter, your thesis to short "dave" changed so dramitically when it traded 25 cents higher from where you covered."
I evidently didn't explain it well enough, but no...not exactly. My gut told me that the original short was probably ok -- that the rally would fizzle. But my trading discipline forced me (for the reasons explained in my previous very long-winded posts) to protect capital in the event that I was wrong. The stock didn't trade just 25 cents higher. It traded back up to 11.40 before topping (the non-confirming rally I spoke of earlier). I wasn't prescient enough to short it there (nor should I have prior to indication that the downtrend had resumed and was still in place). When the stock did in fact roll over again, I felt more comfortable in being short again. In fact, in my system, the recent rally failure adds validity to the position and increases the statistical probabilities of success. Not sure-fire, but I feel pretty good about this one. That having been said, if I am proven wrong, I'll be little-wrong again, not big-wrong.
"I guess if the tape is the jury, then you win, either by a keen trading accumen, some divine technical insite, fortuitous market forces that intervened on your short sale's behalf, or plain luck. Whatever the case might be, well a win is win is a win."
As the fellow says: I'd rather be lucky than good!
Famous Dave's has beer, and the "Shack" style restaurant near us does have a bar in it. Unfortunately, I always get picked as the designated driver, so I can't tell you all about the beer selections like I can about the other sauces. I did sample a very tall but very good beer that my husband orders there. It struck me as maybe being an unfiltered ale...quite tasty!
I'll try to get more info and post later.
Thanks for the forgiveness.
I hear ya, but your essentially telling me that one business day letter, your thesis to short "dave" changed so dramitically when it traded 25 cents higher from where you covered.
I guess if the tape is the jury, then you win, either by a keen trading accumen, some divine technical insite, fortuitous market forces that intervened on your short sale's behalf, or plain luck. Whatever the case might be, well a win is win is a win.
btw, have you ever eaten at a Dave's? I asked on one of my recent posts what beer the good folks in Wisconsin drink with their Dave's ribs and nobody responded. Maybe its a dry restaurant, which is okay too for a family environment.
"nice trade, robobroker.
are you still looking for the 6-7 range? or have you covered?
Still short. First target still around 8.50 as it was on my first short (which it hit, but I didn't cover quickly enough). If it breaks that support, yes my analysis indicates the low 6's still. In my opinion we're seeing a fairly clear rollover type momentum shift.
In response to my posting regarding the fact that that I'm trading DAVE on the short side again, Valueplayer7 writes:
"Who in h--- gives a poop?? Trying to talk it down??"
And Ownsalotofstock adds:
"Exactly. Who cares?"
Before responding to me in this manner, you might want to take a few minutes and look back at the messages which I have posted to this board over the last week or so.
I have had interesting, respectful discussions with fiatowner, oldbaldy, jonceramic, and others. We have not necessarily agreed, but I do think that my point of view -- whether it was generally agreeed-with or not -- added something to the board. My trading evaluation was, as you will see if you trouble yourself to look back at the posts, based on technical analysis. I also disclosed when I covered my other short, why, how much I lost, and the fact that I might short again (or go long)if I felt the technical indicators pointed in that direction.
My reasons for the trading choices I made have been, I believe, something out of the realm of simply "trying to talk it down".
A public message board gives the opportunity for an open discourse and the evaluation of all opinions -- contrary or not. It seems to me that having available the reasoning behind the decisions and choices made by those who disagree with you can be a useful tool in
either making decisions or keeping a vigilant eye on decisions already in place.
Perhaps the above two individuals, who take exception with my voicing of my position, prefer a one-way, rah-rah type of forum.
If so, I invite you to use the "ignore" feature. The others mentioned, while not agreeing with me, thanked me for providing reasoned explanations for my conclusions. I would be happy, as always, to explain how I arrived at the decision to sell short again.
Of course, nothing I wrote rose to the level of eruditeness expressed in those classic words: "Who in the h--- gives a poop??", but be patient with me. I'm just a bashing, trash-talking, uninformed short seller. I obviously don't have the well-reasoned viewpoint to match that.
Let me see now, just so I understand you thouroughly: Anyone who doesn't agree with your position and long term sentiment on this stock has absolutely no business posting here. They are obviously self serving and just bashing to make the price go down anyway.
Summary: Go away unless you are a pumper!
I can say that you will make my ignore list way sooner than Robo.