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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Feb 11, 2009 5:45 PM Flag

    this co is slowly dying

    That's ok. When it gets back in the 12-15 range those guys will be buying our shares for the momentum.

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    • I think it is slowly dying not from its risk as a going concern but rather due to the continuous pressure of margin erosion in the contract manufacturing business for tech components in the last decade.

      Right now almost every Chinese contract manufacturing company in tech is pretty much is trading at crazy market caps at levels below their net free cash on their balance sheet so they are now pretty much a dime a dozen in supply.

      What worries me here of the future here is after the Chinese stock craze of the early 00s any string of positive earnings momentum this company has shown was simply ignored and ended up to be short lived so it won't become a momentum stock.

      I still think NTE is the best of breed in one of the worst groups to own.

      What value do I put here?

      The stock is dirt cheap but the market cap will likely stay below its net free cash level until the company posts profits and restores the dividend again and the stock would likely trade at a price that would give a 4% yield in optimum market conditions.

      If I were limited in funds I would rather pick up a beaten down Chinese cyclical like ACH or APWR which has a much greater chance to become a momentum stock than select NTE.

    • Good call.

      Mo Mo's,