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НТЕ Message Board

  • bobforaps bobforaps Jan 15, 2013 7:31 PM Flag

    Market, hedge funds, computer guided trades,

    What you just saw on Jan 14 has been repeated over and over on multiple companies. Just before the quarterly report issue a rumor and attribute it to "sources". The information starved financial media will pick it up and run it and as it passes several publications it becomes "reliable". It is so easy for large players with deep pockets to take over a story like NTE move the price down,(or up) buy in and max out on a short or long play. It is legal, no one ever investigates and real money is made. We little retail players get scammed by fear and greed over and over. Sorry if you sold into this. If you read the original story it was clearly speculation based on air.

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    • 1. The story was all about Apple - Nam Tai wasn't even mentioned
      2. The order cuts are for real - every Apple analyst on the street already adjusted his estimates downwards
      3. Perhaps you might want to take a look at fellow Apple supplier MFLX which saw its stock falling 23% today on desastrous Q1 guidance most likely caused by huge Apple order cuts.
      4. When supplier CRUS already gave Q4 guidance some weeks ago they also issued a much more subdued Q1 outlook which coupled with falling margins caused the stock to take a big hit just to fall much further in the aftermath
      5. As long as your stock is moving up you don't complain about institutional buying interest which doubled the stock price within a few weeks. But when the stock moves down you are the first to scream "Manipulation! Conspiracy! The large players are killing us poor little retail investors!"

      Once again: get real finally - "the big guys" actually don't care much if any about a well run but small chinese EMS company, so nobody is stealing your money here. Investors just take some well deserved profits as the outlook has become somewhat cloudier. Pretty fair, I guess.

      Of course Nam Tai will deliver a decent Q4, that's out of question here - but it's all about the outlook for Q1 - and with Japan Display orders down this much Nam Tai just won't be able to stay on the growth path for Q1.

      • 3 Replies to hageneriksson
      • Hagen, you are truly naive. The story is about Apple. I did not say otherwise, The "cuts" have not been confirmed by any reliable source as fact although this rumor has been around for months. The anal ists go with the wind. MFLX is a dog and has seen four consecutive declining quarters of gross and net income. NTE is the opposite. Conspiracy is your conclusion, not mine. No one has stolen my money but I do believe institutions have better resources than retail investors and hedge funds can cause short term swings in the pps, particularly small caps if they have an interest. I am a buyer at these levels.

      • hagen, the strength in 1Q comes from Sony, not Apple. Here's a hint: only about half of the revenue from 3Q came from Apple, because the iphone was just getting started and ipad was weak. A major portion of the rest was Sony through Japan Display, and Sony has some major new products coming out in 1Q. Japan Display also demonstrated some impressive displays in October, and Sharp is finally getting IGZO moving. It will probably be the weakest quarter of the year, but only because the other quarters are likely to be so strong.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Cut the orders by 70% which is probably more than worst case. (Also 70% of what? 65 million which is 30% higher than what people expected.) Then run some #'s. And come up with a valuation. Everything you ar doing/comparing is a waste of time.