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НТЕ Message Board

  • jaretwilson jaretwilson Jan 27, 2013 11:51 AM Flag


    I didn't get into Nam Tai for the possibility of growth, but that's really become a compelling reason to stay in.

    Tablets: There were zero tablet shipments in 2009. In 2013, 172.4M (including 86.2M ipads) are expected, and 282.7M (including 141.4M ipads) are expected in 2016. There were 14.8M ipads in 2010, meaning nearly 10x growth in ipads is expected from 2010 to 2016.

    Automotive: As I've mentioned, 2012 had 61.7M full color automotive displays. In 2016, it's expected that there will be 116.8M, an 89% increase. Sharp and Japan Display are the main producers.

    Sony: I mentioned the possibility that Nam Tai might benefit from Sony's growth, since Sony uses displays from Japan Display and has historically been a strong partner for Nam Tai. 4Q11 Sony had 6.3M handset shipments, while in 4Q12 Sony had 9.8M handset shipments, an increase of 55.6% compared to the previous year's fourth quarter. The displays have also gotten larger, so in terms of cost/revenue the numbers are even bigger.

    If the rumors are right Nam Tai may expect a weak first quarter -- we'll find out soon. However, long term growth looks very strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Beginning with the second quarter, both the rate and amount of revenue and net income growth would portend a share price at this time of far in excess of the present 12/14 range. The fact that the actual performance of the companys critical financial numbers have greatly eclipsed the share price to date would seem to leave much room for share price expansion even with a muted Q1 guidance.