I travel to China at least 4 times per year meeting with my Chinese manufacturing partners. The Chinese are extremely smart business people and always want to build in positive surprises not negative ones, most Chinese are conservative in nature, businesses do not like to be boxed into a corner with no flexibility due to making statements a long time back that can come back to haunt them. So NTE are playing it conservatively on 1st quarter 2013 estimates. I expect PM's to come in around 8% not the 5-6 or 7% range. NTE did state that by end of 2013, they will reach full capacity. I expect this to occur in the 3rd quarter as a nice surprise.
As for the construction of the new plant in Shenzhen city, expect this to happen a lot sooner than you think. This will be completed within one year from start of construction. I expect this to start in the 4th quarter this year. This will come as a nice positive SURPRISE to many. If you look at how the NTE scenario is playing out. if NTE is at maximum capacity by the end of 2013, they will need this new plant much earlier. They have the new land in hand, they have the building permits, they have the cash required to build it, so as the new high supply contracts are inked, the plant will need to go up much sooner than 2016.
Look for more positive news on NTE as we start off 2013. The wild up & down swings in the stock price is all day trading idiots, these are the people who cannot get a full time job anymore, so they gamble their life away.
By the way, the special dividend from the sale of the old property will be at least $10 per share minimum.
No, I do not think there is any real reason to think about this direction, unless the stock market gives it no respect and the stock price stays low, for a few years which I think it is way too early to think about that.
But, also look at Mr. Koo's age, he is getting up there and I expect some type of estate planning to happen not only with him but also with Mr. Kellogg and would think the best way to do this is to sell the business sometime in the next 5 years, once they have reached to $4 - $5 billion in sales range.
No one really knows, but I will mention this, this stock is going to explode upward sometime this year again as they continue to provide proof that they are an honest, viable long term EMS supplier and they become the leader in this specialized segment.
By the way, if they did take the company private, they would buy it at a high price as both Koo and Kellogg and substantial shares in the company so all shareholders will also get the high sell price.