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Lufkin Industries Inc. Message Board

  • bluedotpirx bluedotpirx Apr 3, 2006 11:01 AM Flag

    Why did the stock fall on the last ER?

    The last earnings were above expectations, so why did the stock fall so badly? Any suggestions?

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    • Very simple - the market already priced in great earnings and oil prices were already falling.

      Take a look at the history:

      Back in Oct. 2005 LUFK fell from 52 to 33 and when the earnings came in better than expected, it popped 8 dollars in one day. However, in February 2006 LUFK had already moved from 50 to nearly 70 and oil was beginning to fall. Therefore, the momentum was not behind its back.

      Fast forward to today: LUFK fell from nearly 70 to 45 and oil is back on the way up. The odds are good that the earnings will help out this time.

    • IMO, there were two main causes:

      (1) there was a significant drop in crude oil prices occuring during the first half of February ($69 to $59). If you compare the crude oil price chart$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p65305624147

      with that of LUFK's, you can see the strong similarities.

      (2) the drop in oil prices appears to have encouraged a coordinated pullout of the entire energy sector by hedge funds and other institutional investors. If you look at stocks like cop, vlo and eca, you'll see that they too like LUFK had exceptionally high volume days on Feb. 8. 9 and 10 (and similar price declines). Afterwards, IBD dropped LUFK from their IBD 100 list and gave it a "accum/distribition" grade of D.

      Unfortunately, earnings were announced on Feb. 9 while the stock dump was in progress. It was a classic case of "buy on the rumor (of another great quarter) and sell on the news" (exceeding analysts' expectations).

      Since mid-Feb., oil prices have inched upwards again and so has LUFK's price. However, the daily volume has remained low. If the institutional investors return (which should be evident by a greatly increased volume), IMHO the price will move up very quickly afterwards.

    • Because the traders decided it should go down. Smaller company seems to swing up and down (short term) at their whims. I assume they thought there was not enough growth going forard. I hope actual results will prove them wrong and that we will see upsdie to new levels.