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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • deepvaluejpm deepvaluejpm Sep 8, 2009 9:42 PM Flag

    Mr. Davis: TA nearly 2x the RAS stock price already

    Sam adam's light is tasty Davis, gonna cost you 3 shares of RAS give or take.

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    • Nah: AIS. Remember, according to Davis, spelling doesn't matter...

    • You meant AIG, of course.

      My all time favorite is Fruit of the Loom (FTL back then as I recall). It was a 100 year old company, the dominant player in its segment, a dividend payer, and extremely profitable. It not only had way over 50% market share, but owned the trademarks of the the number two player and collected a piece of its revenue as well.

      Its still the dominant brand in its segment, but the stockholders had their shares zeroed less than a year after its price fell as it recovered from a difficult transition of manufacturing to overseas manufacturing.

      Berkshire Hathaway owns it now, but shareholders went from $20 a share to less than $1 a share overnight, and eventually lost the entire value of a company that just about had a rapidly incurred debt paid off when a bankruptcy judge gave the company away.

      Anything can happen, and TA isn't a blue chip. Its a fairly young startup with an interesting (but competitive) niche. I will continue to approach the investment cautiously.

    • Oops. That was a typo. I meant "AIG", of course.

    • In spite of the massive head start I alloted, TA is already more than 2x the price of RAS, a dog meat stock. You will be buying me beers. I would rather you "source" excellent stock ideas that I will inturn make money on and take all the credit for.

    • I'm fully aware of the numbers. Most people who trade lose money over the long term, which makes index funds a better long term investment choice for many people. It remains that the a study of brokerage accounts isn't terribly fine grained. Something like 90% of those who trade lose money (they don't even gain 3%). Most value investors equal or better 12% over the long term. I do better.

    • Antares Pharma? When was that ever "blue chip"? Never. Strong and consistent downtrend, ever since 1996.

      What AIS were you thinking of?

    • "most reliable blue chip stocks can fall apart"

      Think AIS: From triple-A club to the junkyard in a couple of days.

    • It may interest you to know that the business school at UC Davis did a study of 50,000 brokerage accounts from 1985-95. During that period the avearge annual return of these accounts was about 3%. During that same time the SP500 returned 12% per year.
      Nuff said. alf

    • I am seriously considering putting a stop loss on half my position. That is, in my view, a seriously intelligent move for the following reasons:

      1 - The stop loss may never hit. In that case my full position continues to rise.

      2 - If the stop loss does hit, the sale will assure that I cannot possibly lose money overall on TA. I will have my principal, a small profit, and still have half my position.

      3 - If the price of TA stays down long enough, I can use reuse the profits to buy a larger position than I had before with the same money. My average price goes down and my potential gain is larger (more because of the larger number of shares).

      This isn't rocket science deep. If you don't understand why this is smart long term investing, you aren't firing on all cylinders.

    • 18 months is a long time, but TA did do nicely today.

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