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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • calglen555 calglen555 Sep 13, 2010 2:48 PM Flag

    what is the chance?

    between bright side (back to normal at least 1/3 of old days ) and dark side?
    please do not waste time with B/S
    thanks !

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    • thank you very much guys!
      i really appreciate your valuable opinions.
      good luck to you all !
      thanks again ^^


      This is really exciting.
      First time for me to see a struggle with the stockprice for 5 days now.

      It seems it will be bullish from tomorrow.

    • I'll take the "old days" as being the range RAS traded in for close to five years before the residential downturn turned into an economic calamity: e.g. $26-$30. I put the odds of seeing $9-$10 over the next two years at over 90%. There are good reasons for thinking that:

      1 - We'll be past the convertible notes put window. It will turn out to be a non-event.

      2 - Profitability will continue to improve such that the business can support a dividend.

      3 - The economy will improve enough that prices will start to rise again. RAS will sell some of its properties, turn the retained capital into new loans, and increase it profitability on loan turnover.

      4 - Financisls, including mortgage REITs, will move back into favor.

      That's just the high points.

      I rate the odds of the "dark side", as you put it, at less than 1%; the odds of an acquisition at less than 5%.

    • Just my two cents: fair odds (north of 75%) we see $5 by this time next year. If you go through the FAQS you'll see a couple of napkin calculations all pointing in that direction.

      But remember some wise old guy once said "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Good for me that I don't use margin and have an excellent cash flow then huh :)

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