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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • deepvaluejpm deepvaluejpm Sep 18, 2010 10:39 PM Flag

    Revisionist Davis on the "Long Term" - Jan 21, 2008

    One of the biggest beef I have w/Davis is his "scrip flipping" to fit RAS outcomes muddies with his own personal (and unaudited) outcomes at odds with his advice on this board (telling board to "back up truck" at $5, but claiming he himself did this closer to $.50.
    This flipping has been the transformation from long term investor to hypertrader. From value investing to volatility trading. From buying RAS as a "middle man" and for its "easy" dividend to buying for its "owned real estate" and "FFO." Now he is re-working his interpretation of the long term to fend off our calls for him to admit that RAS was a collasal investment mistake based soloey on the OUTCOME (FACT). HE tells us now he ALWAYS said the turnaround of RAS could take a very long time (then why invest so soon?) This present stance of Longsin 2.0 is a myth and inconsistent with Media Davis 1.0.

    Here is direct quote from Jan 2008, almost 3 years ago. Note Davis explicit measurement of what he considered the "long-term" at that time.

    "Over the long term (2-3 years), RAS should rebound from the August crash. When it does, your returns will be considerably better than the Dow. In truth, however, your returns will probably be better than the Dow based on the dividends alone."

    Question: What is the return of RAS with dividends since Jan 21, 2008? the return of the DOW? Could you hope to find a stock that would underperform the dow as much if YOU TIRED on Jan 21.

    We all make mistakes. For sure I make mine. But I don't continue with dogma and disrepsect though leaders like DA and Ki who really tried to help. It remains they saved people money or even helped make people money. Davis surely cost people dearly. several in the past I believe said they held on based on his "research." Keep it real.

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    • I'm sure I am waisting my breath (fingers) with this post but I just don't get the bashing on this board. Whether you agree or disagree with someones ideas about this stock (or another) what is the point of personal attacks?

      Differences in opinion make a market. For every person who buys there is a seller and vice versa. The personal attacks and sniping just clutter this board with nonsense and make it difficult to find the posts with meaningful, and/or interesting content.

      If you don't agree with "Davis" or whomever just ignore his post or provide a factual and respectful rebutal. From what I can tell he is providing his PERSONAL opinion on things and provides material in an attempt to back it up. If you disagree with his opinion or backup material please tell us why in a similar manner. I for one would like to know so I can gather additional useful information to better inform my investment decision.

      I am long this stock and have a very open mind as to whether or not that is a good thing for my financial future.

      As I said, I am probably wasting my time, but I ask you to please be respectful and provide meaningful contribution. We all want to make money here, lets focus on that.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to dallen3447
      • So, pumpking by the shills is just fine by you, but posting factual critiques of fatuous blimpery is "bashing" ?


      • There was a time not all that long ago when Davis posted 20 to 40 times a day dominating the board and only had + spin on RAS. That was while RAS was trying to do debt for equity transactions in an effort to dig itself out of the deep debt hole it found itself in. Over $400 million of convertible debt with a looming PUT date on all of it.

        RAS survived its debt troubles and the management of RAS should give Davis a trophy of some sort. Unfortunately, the + tales spun convinced many the naive investor to buy in at a time when RAS was truly weak. Most likely those naive folks that missed out on some other good opportunities and locked up a loss on RAS common are the ones that are bitterly posting right now. Mr Davis now only posts once or twice a day.
        I am long RAS and at this point feel it has many good days ahead.

    • "Davis surely cost people dearly. several in the past I believe said they held on based on his "research." "

      Davis will never admit this. Cognitive dissonance a work. Posts like yours might prompt newbies to do their own due diligence and not defer to Davis.

      • 2 Replies to gtw999
      • People make their own decisions. That's not cognitive dissonance. That's just the way it really is.

        There have always been lots of posts on both sides of this stock, My comments never existed in isolation. That's not cognitive dissonance. That's just the long standing reality of this board.

        I have persistently offered facts that anyone could verify in doing their own due diligence using public documents that I provided pointers to. The naysayer perspective has not always been very good about facts or references. It has not prevented them from being very effective in convincing people to sell their shares at a loss. Again, that's not cognitive dissonance. It can be directly observed in comments that have been made on this board.

        You don't seem to understand what cognitive dissonance is. Cognitive dissonance causes people to ignore fads and not do due diligence when the facts inconveniently disagree with the decisions they've made. I can name lots of people who routinely engage in cognitive dissonance on this board by ignoring inconvenient facts. I work hard at not being one of them, and have persistely not only encouraged people to do their own due diligence, but provided the reference pointers that helped them to do it.

        I've never noticed any trend of people "deferring" to me on this board. Quite the contrary. More to the point, I hope they don't. Better they should learn something from me and do better due diligence as a result than they do what I I say.

      • A "new" Davis Foulger started showing up here about six months ago. The "new" Foulger posts responsibly and doesn't embarass himself by making absurdly ridiculous claims like the "old" Foulger used to do in every post. The "old" Foulger embarassed himself so routinely that the word "Foulgerism" entered the vernacular as a term for somebody who makes ridiculous claims and then denies making them a few days later when they don't pan out. Nowadays the "Foulgerisms" are few and far between.

        I don't know what happened to the old boy. Maybe all those icepick lobotomies the Cohens used to give him in the basements of their tenements have worn off.

    • And those were pre-split prices. Not much has changed in the foulger fertilizer factory product since then.

      • 1 Reply to daddylongchip
      • If nothing else, Foulger certainly can rattle a lot of cages with a few words, your cage included. Why this is so is not, judging by the caliber of the vast majority of these "attack" statements, comprehensible. People who live in glass..........
        For the record I have greatly benefitted by Mr. Foulger's comments. They have kept me in the common and preferreds I began buying in 2008 when I was contemplating selling out. I do not pay attention to anyone's comments whose subject is one of stock timing. I have yet to find a reliable crysatl ball dealer. What I have found and continue to do so is a dismaying number of people such as youself who add nothing of substance to my understanding of the complexities of a REIT's bookeeping and quarterly and annual statements. And this, Mr. DLC, is a reality you or any other negative poster on this and other sites cannot refute. At least not honestly.


    • Feeling a little frustrated? Need to blame someone else for your mistakes? Thought so.

    • spines_4_the_spineless spines_4_the_spineless Sep 20, 2010 10:53 PM Flag

      He's an ahole and so are you. Academics with paper aholes. The test of reality and you "paper" loss in RAS show you are a failed academic dabbling in a sphere you are inept in.

    • Chuckle. Mild hyperbole. If I'd said known universe it wouldn't even be that.

    • " every financial in the universe "

      Nice to know you avoid exaggeration.


    • Good theory can inform decision making, but Fishbien isn't writing about the markets. He's writing about persuasive tactics. If you want to understand what bashers (e.g. people like you) are doing, Fishbein is a good place to gain some understanding.

    • All single instance comparisons are meaningless, deep. I said "many" and "most". Take it as an assumption that many PREITs (like Vornado) are doing better. Take it as a given that some MREITs (like NLY and RSO) are doing better. I have a list of 75 REITs that were profitable in 2Q. RAS has better value numbers than any of tehm. I also have a list of over 150 unprofitable REITs. Its clearly doing better than most of them.

      As for ROCE, its clear that RAS doesn't have a strong number there compared with three years ago. Its also clear that there is lots of prospective improvement from where it is now. Time will tell. They've turned from losses last year to resumption of Funds from Operations. They've gone from there to GAAP profitability; from there to taxable earnings. The next step is a dividend. The real test, going forward is how big a dividend RAS can produce.

      EVA, like its synonym, Economic Profit, which at its best is a 20/20 hindsight guess about what a company might have done differently, will be less than irrelevant to investors (most of whom are unaware of the terminology anyway) if there is a dividend. The market is not an academic exercise. Its real dollars and the future profits that they generate.

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