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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • stablestock stablestock Jun 7, 2013 1:21 PM Flag

    REIT conference bounce...div increase in Q2 or Q3

    So it looks like RAS has gotten it's reit conference bounce. Too bad it came after the pull back. The good news is that a div increase in definitely on the horizon and possibly an earning surprise in Q2 based on the fact they have put all the cash to work.

    The next bounce will come on the IRT IPO. Maybe another week or two.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I think its a horse race between the 2Q divdidend annoucement, IRT, and the securitization. I'd handicap the the dividend announcement at about 70% odds (it has to be the heavy favorite given the review times normally associated with effectiveness orders on IPOs). IRT should beat the securitization, but RAS has more control over the securitization. The longer the SEC takes, the better the odds that the securitization places and IRT shows. For the moment I'd handicap IRT's odds of coming in first at about 25% and the securitizations odds of coming in first at only 5%

      • 1 Reply to davisfoulger
      • A week has passed. Time to update the odds. We're only days from the dividend announcement now and RAS may be getting something of a pre-announce bump at this point. It's odds of being the next thing to move the price have increased, at this point, to about 85%. We're probably no more than a month away from the securitization being announced, so it's low odds of being th next thing reduce to about 3%. The clock is ticking on the IRT announcement, and while it will happen, the effectiveness notice will happen on the SEC's schedule, which could easily stretch out. The odds of it being the next thing that moves RAS price rediuced, based mostly on the inevitability of a RAS dividend announcement by the end of next week, to about 12%.

        Once we get past the dividend announcement ex-div and the 2Q results announcement will enter the mix, and the odds will shuffle pretty seriously.

    • I listened to the recorded version and was pleased with all I heard. They explained their plan and overall thoughts very clearly. We did learn tidbits that we previously did not possible timing for Tabernas cash flow.

3.25+0.01(+0.31%)Jul 28 4:02 PMEDT