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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

  • davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 2, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    RAS Year in Review

    We probably won't know RAS full year numbers until late February/early March, but based on what we already know, RAS had a great year:

    1 - RAS started 2013 with ex-div for a 10 cent 4Q2012 dividend. It ends 2013 with a pending 16 cent dividend. It goes ex-div on January 3 (tomorrow). That's a 60% increase in the dividend in one year.

    2 - RAS opened 2013 with a trade at $5.73. Later that day it set it's low for the year at $5.66. RAS ended 2013 at $8.97. and set a high of $9.21 just before Christmas. From its low on January 2 to its high last week it is up 63%. From its open on January 2 to its close yesterday ($9.00) it is up 57% Clearly, the share priced has tracked the dividend this year.

    3 - Although it's volatility is clearly reduced from past years, RAS proved to be quite volatile this year. It rose from a low of $5.66 on January 2 to $8.85 on May 9, fell to $6.16 on August 30, and rose to a high of $9.21 on December 24 and 26. It was a great year to trade around a core position.

    4 - RAS will pay 56 cents in dividends for 2013. If you bought RAS at the end of last year you aren't just up by the difference between the price you bought at and $8.97. You have another 56 cents of dividends.

    5 - If you owned RAS in 2010, you've received $1.12 in dividends That doubles its divident payout form 2011 and 2012. Add that to $8.97 (RAS close for 2013 and its close today) and you get $10.09. If you are holding RAS from before 2011, subtract your average cost per share and you know how profitable you are. I have a $7.59 profit. Some of you have bigger profits. some smaller. No matter. 2013 was a breakout year for our RAS positions.

    And I don't about you, but RAS was very good to me this year.

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    • Actually, we should see the results sooner than that. RAS has been putting out their 4Q numbers in mid-February over the last few years. IRT and the January offerings may complicate things a bit, but they've provided some insight into the asset side of 4Q. Things don't look blockbuster, but they do look like they are at least in line with 3Q (and good enough to warrant a dividend increase).

      • 1 Reply to davisfoulger
      • The big question, as we look forward to the 4Q conference call, is whether RAS will continue to consolidate IRT. The recent IRT follow on offering lowers RAS stake to about 39%, low enough to treat IRT as an associate company and avoid consolidation of IRT's earnings statement and balance sheet with RAS' earnings statement and balance sheet.

        The big question, as we approach the 4Q results, is whether this change will affect 4Q reporting or if the results will cease to be consolidated starting with 1Q2014. I would expect that, at the very least, that this issue will be addressed in the 4Q results with a least a discussion of the pending change.

    • And that's just the market side of things. RAS hit some important milestones as well.

      1 - It wrote its first new securitization since 2008. As things stand it provides RAS with at least an 18% yield. It was well on its way to writing a second securitization at the end of 2013 (we just don't know how close it got yet).

      2 - It substantially increased its conduit business and its bridge loan production.

      3 - It took IRT public and has already doubled the number of units IRT owns. IRT increased its dividend before going public.

      4 - Rents and occupancy are up on its owned properties. At least so far this year rental property margins are up over a million bucks a quarter over 2012. The properties are delivering 47% more revenue than they cost to maintain.

      5 - Investment interest margins are up even more sharply. 3Q margins where $2 million ahead of 4Q2012. RAS is keeping 75% of the interest it collects.

      6 - AFFO was up over $6 million in 3Q from 4Q 2012. AFFO per share in 2013 has averaged 32 cents a share. AFFO per share in 2012 was closer to 27 cents per share. That's a big increase that shows in RAS bigger dividend.

      7 - Operating income for the first three quarters of 2013 is 53% higher than RAS operating in come for ALL of 2012. RAS is on track to more than double its operating income year over year.

      As I said, we'll know more in two months, but RAS had a pretty good year. That's probably why its price is up.

    • From the looks of that photo, you were celebrating in November 2008 and 2012 too.

      • 2 Replies to mugblum
      • RAS Discussion Board Year in Review

        1 - Ethicon asked a lot of good questions and was often the first to note announcements from RAS and IRT.
        2 - There have been a number of good discussions of RAS, many of the started by steve, biggerclicker, and many others.
        3 - There were, unfortunately, diluted by a huge number of non-RAS/non-stock-market topics. We don't have statistics for the full year, but RAS and stock market topics accounted for less than 40% of the board's new topics in the last three months of 2013 and that seems fairly representative of the year. About a quarter of those non-RAS/non-stock market threads were about politics, with virtually all expressing a "tea party" perspective. Most were started by don and steve. Roughly three quarters of the non-RAS/non-stock market topics were personal attacks on a single board contributor. There were many sources of such waste of time threads, but mugblum and the davisfouger ghost were probably responsible for at least half of them. A small fraction were self-congratulatory topics, with just about all started by iamjoe.
        4 - For all that, longs owned the year, overall. If they simply owned the stock from the beginning of the year to the end they ended the year up 63%. If they traded the highs and lows to some extent they could easily have done better than that. In the end, actions speak louder than words.

      • I had a lot to celebrate in 2008. The market wasn't one of them, but the bottom was near and I had lots of cash on hand in March, 2009.

        I had a lot to celebrate in 2012. The market was one of them I was up 24% and beat the S&P by 8 percentage points.

        I did better in 2013. I was up 72% and beat the S&P by 46 percentage points.

        None of that would cause me to dance around in a red diaper playing the recorder. I'm really a pretty conservative guy when nit comes to that sort of thing.

        I do feel pretty good about Obama though. The market (the S&P) is up an average of 16% a year under his presidency, making him one of the most successful capitalist presidents ever. Over the same interval I'm up an average of 27% a year (so I'm beating the S&P by 11% a year over that period). I must be some kind of capitalist, don't you think?

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