Expectations are for $1.5-$3 million in 2013, but the consensus is $1.5 million. Therefore, expectations are very low.
But, GALE is guiding for a low market share of the $400m space, only 10-15%.
INSY has created nearly $40 million in sales over the last year, and most has been with its fentanyl spray Subsys. So, if we use them as a gauge, since Abstal and Subsys are essentially the same product, GALE has a tremendous amount of upside with the success of Abstral. GALE has done a great job with hiring people with success in product launch and marketing. Thus I think Abstral is going to be a success. I think Subsys' success is an indication that physicians are prescribing such products, and I think Abstral will capitalize on this trend.
Therefore, if sales of Abstral are towards the high-end of guidance, or better-than-expected, I think GALE could be $5 by the end of the year, as investors prep for the next INSY. But if bad, I think GALE stays at $2, seeing as how the stock has added NO VALUE since the acquisition of Abstral. Essentially, there is little to no end of year risk (no dilution and no expectations) but tons of upside with reason to be excited.
The key to a successful launch of this product is to include all hospice RNs in their presentations. They work very close with there patients and actual inform physicians what works well for pain control. They will become GALE secondary sales force.
Conservative guidance and beating expectations is historically a benefit to stock holders. It is all about beating expectations and Abstral and Galena are positioned nicely to do just that. Ahn was very wise with the deal to gain the US rights to Abstral there are more than just the sales revenues involved here. This gets Galena name recognition in the field. Great move.