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  • lonerangercards lonerangercards Mar 29, 2006 8:39 PM Flag

    Positives to Consider

    Goog volume had been down since the S & P announcement until today. Last Friday�s 15 million shares was the only day over the 13 Mil. daily average so funds had many share left to buy.


    1) Recent Wall Street Journal Article: 3/28/06
    Jordan Rohan, an analyst at RBC Capital, wrote that the latest results indicate that Google may just meet his "high" estimates, calling for 15% net sales growth from the fourth quarter, or up 87% annually. He also reminds his clients that volume is "healthier than this time last year."
    2)New stock offering is just 1.6% dilution 5/297 Mil, which translates to about $6 bucks a share. Not that much. Stock still has room to run.

    3)Last time Goog offered more stock 2 & � month later they reported great earnings and went up over 100 points

    4)Goog is showing significant confidence they will beat the $1.99 earnings estimate, this has not changed and in fact by doing this stock offering shows their confidence even more. It is a great sign of good things to come.
    5)By the way, Rohan was referring to: Google's search-query volume rose 29.4% last month, nearly three times as fast as the 11% growth for the industry, according to comScore Networks. The rise in searches enabled Google to capture 42.3% of the market for all searches, up from a third a year ago.

    6)Fundamentals are firming up for Goog, for MSN and Yahoo they are not. MSN missed with their Vista Windows offering and Yahoo is losing search.

    7) Also: Sasa Zorovic, an analyst with Oppenheimer, agreed that Google's addition to the index should be a good thing for investors since the company and its executives, already heavily scrutinized, will now have even more attention paid to what they say and do.As such, what happens with Google's stock after most index managers buy it will depend more on how strong Google's first-quarter results are. There is no question that Google will deliver healthy growth when it releases its numbers sometime in April. Analysts expect the company to report revenue, excluding ad sales it shares with affiliate partners, a figure known as traffic acquisition costs or TAC, of $1.45 billion, an 82 percent increase from a year ago. And Wall Street is predicting that Google will report earnings per share of $1.99, an increase of 54 percent from the same period last year. Zorovic said he's confident Google's stock will bounce back after it reports first-quarter numbers. Investors may be wary of the stock before the results because they are still licking their wounds following Google's earnings miss in January.
    8)Almost Finally; I believe Thursday and Friday will be good trading days for Goog and we could see close to $400 again. Goog is only offering 5 million shares and I believe many shares are still needed.
    9)Finally-Cramer is a self-absorbed jerk. I would like to draw a mustache on the picture of himself he hangs on his show. He acts incredibly childish for such a great stock picker. Is he really out to find a bull market or just bullshit you? Good luck and hang in there. Goog will weather this storm!

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    • You have to consider yourself fortunate that natural selection no longer holds sway in the modern world.

      You're a dead end.

    • So maybe it's for all the lunches, or to fuel up the jet, or new bicycle tires, or a blue suit, or whatever. It's what, 5 or 6$ a share? Not a big deal. Whatever they spend it on is fine by me.

    • S & P was nice gift to longs. 40 or 50 point gain is no laughing matter. The real catalyst howvere is going to be Q1 earnings coming up and not the S & P. That is where you see this thing move. Secondary is a sign of managment confidence in earnings. They would not make this move otherwise.

      The sign post up ahead is "Goog beat the estimates for Q1" and Cramer was found locked in a closet beating his head againt a WSJ bull statute rambling-sell, sell, sell--no--I mean buy, buy, buy--no--I mean sell, sell, sell--you must listen to me even if I don't make sense-my ratings are great!

    • Probably not. I imagine there is some calculation in it. But the funds won't purchase 18 Mil in one day. There are a few other traders out there too. This is not a sign that Goog is going out of business. This is a sign that Goog is thriving and very much in business.

    • Is it a coincidence that GOOGLE's avg daily volume is 13+ million, S&P funds need to buy 18+ million shares AND Google's secondary offering is 5 Million? ( 18 minus 13)???

    • True, maybe not a sign of immediate investor focus, but long term I think it is good and a strong sign. Goog is still growing and they need the cash for continued opennings into new product lines. It makes good sense to me company wise, maybe not for three days for me--but over 2006 better for Goog. And yes I do see this as a strong sign of confidence in the Q1 earnings report coming up from Goog management. This is as strong a sign as they give.

      I do not see them selling these additional shares thru GS to rake new institutional holders. Remember Goog wants to hire and keep the best and brighest. If their stock does not go up they will not retain these people. The stock option compensation won't mean didly if the stock is not strong.

      Your comment--

      "Maybe it'll play out fine, maybe not, either way it's odd and not sign of strong mgmt and investor focus."

    • you need clarity on what? Yes the tradeable float is going down with the S&P buyin, of course the funds are already overweight goog so its not as extreme as if they didn't own any. Plenty of stocks in the S&P go down after they are added so this isn't some goldmine or anything. A nice benefit for longs though.

    • You seem to know what you are talking about so i'll ask you...The shares that are bought by the funds are gone forever or at least for a very long time as the 500 funds (have) to own them, unlike like the shares that many people buy and sell everyday or every hour... so these bought shares in the next few days will limit the float much more than the ones being issued, which may not even be bought untill after earnings, I need clarity ...thanks

    • <<April can be such an unkind month, expecially w/ how overbought the Dow and S&P are. >>

      My god will you shorts please get some perspective. Every single leading stock including google, apple, marvel etc have hit their 200dma and bounced off it. In other words we just had a whale of a correction in these stocks.

      To hear you shorts tell it , we are in a market like 99 or something. True we just hit NEW HIGHS in the dow, after trying to penetrate 11K for 6 years. GAWD.

      Iow the markets could have a 70% correction and you'd still be calling them overbought. Except GOLD of course that you think is worth $1K per ounce for some bizarre reason.

    • valid point for april.
      Although, the largest boyz have shares @ 335 most recently, so they either will dump and repurchase, or just hold and google will not dip too low on a downward market, then a nice pop on the surprise at earnings. My researched opinion of course......

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