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  • jinqiu_lu jinqiu_lu Sep 19, 2006 7:29 PM Flag

    Why GOOG is in danger of fall?

    Nice bounce?

    HOD 415.49, LOD 392.74, range 22.75, close 403.81, bounced 11.07 <.500 Fib.

    Here is what I gonna say: GOOG will print another candle entirely travels inside the bottom tail of today�s candle tomorrow, and you should know what that means!

    Those who sold under 400 are stop loss orders! Unlike on the way up, the one sold @ 400 will jump in @ 405 the next day, because he had gains and wants more gains! But, when GOOG was above 415 at open today, then traders got stopped out < 395, that hurts badly! This is a $20+ loss in a day, for them, they will not come back tomorrow!

    Ask yourself, if you chased this morning above 415, then got bailed out @ 395, will you come back into GOOG tomorrow even it bounces to 405??? Not to mention that there are still a bunch bag holders up there waiting for jump the sinking boat! The minute there is a sign shows that GOOG is about finish its bounce and will dive again, every long will bail using mkt order, and every short will jump in using mkt order, and the LOD today will penetrated!!

    Mark this post! ;))

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    • < Ask yourself, if you chased this morning above 415, then got bailed out @ 395, will you come back into GOOG tomorrow even it bounces to 405??? >

      Seems like about 115K shares being 'chased' in AH:
      After Hours
      Last: $ 404.80
      High: $ 404.94
      After Hours
      Volume: 115,289
      Low: $ 398.2654

    • Way to go Einstein. How much did you lose today?

      • 2 Replies to tomw31356
      • And you?

      • Nothing on GOOG, I didn�t trade GOOG today, just watching and waiting for the next short entry. But I closed my OIH calls intraday, made $2 each, good enough.

        Here is a free tip for you, I picked up some ERS between 9.09-9.28 today with avg @ 9.14 and I set my stop @ 9, so the risk is .14 with a potential profit target @ $3. I see very nice risk/reward ratio on ERS here.

        I don�t want any stocks, stocks won�t pay my bills; all I need is just cash daily. I do my DD everyday after close, and set up my plan for the next day, make 20 cents here and a few bucks there. To me GOOG is nothing difference to a stock @ $40, or $4, I use 1000 share lot for $4 stocks, 100 share lot for $40 stocks and 10 share lot for $400 stocks. They are all the some, no big difference.

    • I saw one of your strategies is to buy $220 Jan2008 PUT.
      You are expecting a big drop from now on to Jan2008. While your PUT far beyond the monday. Even $50 drop, your gain will be only $10-$13.

      If you are so sure GOOG will drop before JAN2008, why don't you buy deep ITM put? Wouldn't that be much more simple for you?

      • 1 Reply to perlandc
      • ;))) That is a common mistake for average traders, wishing get rich on one big hit. I never bet on that. I always take profit on 3-5% and if I am lucky and got a 10%+ day, I will definitely give it a trailing stop to protect my gain.

        To make a 50% gain is very hard, but to make 10 5% gain trades are very easy. And there is always a risk and reward issue in there. To buy ITM Jan 08 calls will need to set a huge amount fund aside, are you willing to do so?

        Jan 08 220 put only about $5 a piece, 10 contracts on cost $5K, If you go with Jan 410 put @ 53.6, that will need $53.6K and you need to see GOOG close below 356.4 to make you break even on OE. So, you are setting $53K aside for 2 years doing nothing and not sure what the final result will be.

        And Jan 220 Put is different, first this is a bet trade, betting on the big dive to happen, if not, you can always salvage $2-3 points out of it easy. The risk is very low. If it does dive, you can easily locking 300-500% gain overnight. Good enough. Right?

        And don�t think $50 drop on GOOG is big drop, you can see many $40 stocks drop >$5 over night, INSP just dropped 22% ($5) overnight after earning report, if this 22% happens to GOOG, GOOG need to drop $88, that will put GOOG @ $310 level, that is only 9 steps away from ITM for 220 put, and if you look at close today, you can see that is equivalent to strike @ 320 for today, you put will worth about 20 then, not to mention after a big dive like that, GOOG will more likely to sink further.

    • Don�t you think GOOG picked a best time to do IPO?? Don�t you think GOOG already passed the highest growth rate time? Do you think GOOG can keep its peak growth rate day after day, Q after Q, year after year? If any of these answer is �Yes!�

      Then, GOOG only goes down!!

    • Haha�

      I said 418 is another peak on the chart, and TA never fails!!

      Remember, when GOOG was near 380s, I said I was looking for open my short position near 410 level, I didn�t go long there because the risk to BD is too high, although I did see a bounce might possible, then started adding 1-2 contracts Jan 400 put since 412 passed, and the Monday move was a pure set up: lift GOOG to held QQQQ and do the distribution on the rest, and I was keep adding puts in QQQQ, AMZN, CSCO, GOOG, BA & AIG.

      Woohoo! They all deep in green! I have 10 contracts in GOOG Jan 07 400 put and 10 contracts Jan 08 220 put.

      Yes, I think GOOG will in 200s next year!!

      Paint the house before sell it! The next time I say this, you go short!!

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