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  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Nov 13, 2012 10:17 AM Flag

    Android and Thermonuclear War? AAPL PT $800 at Sanford Bernstein

    SBernstein's analyst now has a BUY on AAPL and an $800 PT ftm.

    Seems it will be more about the OEMs paying royalties to AAPL than goog's problem, but the HTC settlement telegraphs that Cook is perhaps going to focus on getting paid for the Android patent trampling than trying to shut down android.

    That seems like a great idea for AAPL -- the annual annuity stream numbers will be huge as long as some consumers are willing to buy the cheeseball and cheaper (if "programmable") alternative to the Apple iOS software-based products under the AAPL product lines.

    Do note the q in the $10-30/device equation is not just phones -- it will also include all distan 2nd through 98th wannabe "competitors" to the iPad.

    CNBC Video Recap
    Apple vs. Samsung Heavyweight Battle Not Just Phones: Pro
    Published: Monday, 12 Nov 2012 | 2:58 PM ET

    As Apple vies against Samsung for dominance in the smartphone market, hardware sales are increasingly linked to how enthusiastically customers embrace their software, one analyst said.

    Source: Apple
    Last week, a firm reported that Samsung’s Galaxy S III had edged out the Apple [AAPL 542.34 -0.49 (-0.09%) ] iPhone as the world’s best-selling smartphone. The two technology giants are locked in a contest of wills in a digital war selling both tablets and smartphones.

    Yet with all the emphasis on hardware, observers must realize that consumers are basing their decisions in large measure on how well the operating platform performs, said Toni Sacconaghi, senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

    “When people are buying an iPhone versus a Samsung Galaxy S III, they’re implicitly deciding ‘I want to be on the iOS platform, or I want to be on the Android platform,” said the analyst, who rates Apple as an "outperform" with an $800 price target. “So I think the two are very, very linked.”

    That is part of the reason why Apple has so vigorously pursued Samsung in court, accusing the South Korean technology maker of patent violations. Sacconaghi said beleaguered Apple is looking to “upend momentum” of the Galaxy phone, whose platform is based on Google’s [LNKD 99.59 0.59 (+0.6%) ] respected Android software.

    A patent settlement between HTC and Apple has raised speculation that the iPhone creator could embark on a similar path with Samsung. A deal could help Apple feather its bottom line, Sacconaghi said.

    Over the last year, Samsung has pushed nearly 200 million Galaxy units out the doors, Sacconaghi says, along with a smaller number of tablets.

    If Apple is successful in pursuing the company for patent violations — or manages to strike an acceptable settlement deal — the math works out well for the tech giant.

    “Apple actually offered $30 to $40 a unit for a royalty settlement. So even if it was $10 a unit from Samsung,” Sacconaghi said, “that could be $2.5 billion in earnings power for Apple, which is certainly not immaterial.”

    Again, it is more than just Samsung's cheesy, plasticky galaxy phones -- HTC, LG, RIMM, and all the other pos phones running android will also be getting out their royalty payment checkbooks soon. Go AAPL!

    Goog is going to be just fine to as Job's "Thermonuclear War" menancing seems to be trail dust junder Cook's forward thinking these days.

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