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Alphabet Inc. Message Board

  • soonersof_ou soonersof_ou Apr 20, 2013 10:23 AM Flag

    The beginning of the end for Goog?

    So, Goog just reported earnings for the most recent quarter, and "missed" on rev's, generally considered the most important guide of the quality and consistency of the earnings. They handily beat on the eps, but after a quick look it's easy to see why...
    The eps beat on a mysterious charge that is typically spread out over the full year and in this case it was pulled forward to take the entire amount in the most recent quarter, strange. They had a crazy low tax rate that is likely to be higher in the current quarter. They benefitted globally from the weak dollar, but in a race to devalue currency that could become a head-wind in the current quarter as all other nations are now playing the game in a race to the bottom. Finally, cost cutting helped. Like any big bank or multi-national these days the goog cut costs and improved the eps, great.

    The cost per click (CPC) stays on it's trend down, margins continue to shrink, and Motorolla remains an anchor around the neck of the company there are a few things to be worried about. The move to mobile is going to sap much of the money from ads that goog currently receives as the effectiveness of those ads is dramatically worse than traditonal online ads. The only thing making money for goog is the search, and it's an amazing, incredible, marvelous, and wonderful cash cow. It does make a ton of money, but it's making less and less each year on a CPC basis and margins will continue to be squeezed.
    At this point there is no innovation of any kind coming from goog (or apple) so there really is no propellant to drive the pps higher. Google glass and the drivers less car are more gimmicks than the future of innovation.

    Without the 'next big thing' on the horizon and with numbers that are eroding it's hardly time to pile into this bloated stock. Perhaps we run to 900, heck, we might even sniff $1000 as several analysts have suggested? The law of big numbers will catch goog like others before it...
    G/L trading~

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    • wat u smoke bro?

      Pas it around..

    • A very minor setback for Goog. The cutting edge technologies that Goog is developing will render this rare miss to be nothing but a small bump in history.

    • How could earnings beat if they took an entire amount of a charge that should be spread over the entire year. That does not make sense and would decrease earnings. I really don't agree with much of what you said other than to say that at some point the law of large numbers comes into play. Dollar is moving up not down. Innovation at google is probably better than most companies in the space. Monetizing most of it has not been as good as it should. But highly likely if they do hit something big it will be a money maker. Look at the driverless car. If that is patented that could be a major game changer. I could see big things from google glass.

    • Actually, Google is seeking mobile growth more then pc

      • 1 Reply to tyler.fetty
      • in terms of point of sales, mobile is better. in terms of view frequency of Ad, laptops and iPads are better place to dig. so, how to compromise these two attributes in marketing, impression or action? a product must impress a cosnumer for action. here is a little hint how to link these two together, if you stare a web page for one minute, related product info is sent to your cell phone and ready for action. Cupons, stores, driving directions, WEB site, and deal comparisons are at your hand. This shows a move from imou onepression to action. Every phone call you made is analyzed for certain mechaindise and goods to be adertised in your bigger screen possession, say pswowo c or laptop. Your wife might need a pair of shoes. Your daughter might need airplane ticket for a volleyball tournament in west coast. These two events show how Ad flow from small device to the bigger one for details and comarisons.

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