about apr. 12 x.x.i.a. dropped from the ibd black bar list of top growth fundamentals.the accumulation- distribution rating went from [B to C ] those happened after stock had crashed the 50 day m.a. days earlier.-- fast forward to thur.---market has a blow out day and xxia crawls up a bit on poor volume, and can,t get thru the 50 day. 2.45 and my hand is on the handle of the fridge instead of the telephone or sell button. and friday we all go sledding and here we are. my thanks to all you number crunchers,and i think this is a hi quality stock .
There are a couple of things to consider; 1) we're now in the third year of a bull market, big gains are always the most in the first & second years & start to taper off by the third, 2)after 9/11 the Fed cut rates drastically putting tons of liquidity into the system, now they're trying to go back the other way to head off inflation. I believe they will continue to tighten & if they over do it the current bull market will end and the next bear market will begin. That is what has the market so jitterly, up one day, then sell off the next. What does this mean for XXIA? It is a great company with good numbers, it managed to be profitable during the last bear market, and grew the numbers during the latest bull market. Problem is with a possible bear market on the horizon it's not in a sector where the "smart" money will go. If you can afford to hold long term, I believe a buy during this latest correction could be profitable. IMHO
head and shoulders bottom is a low then a rise then a deeper low, then a rise then a low kinda like the first low
neckline is across the high points between 1st and second low and the one between 2nd and 3rd low
1st low was in late 01, high around NY of 02, 2nd low (the head) late 02, high early jan of 04, 3rd low was approx aug of 04
60s is from the formula
there are many free chart sites explaining head and shoulders, check it out, you'll see better what i'm talking about
the volume was another reason i bought XXIA.
RSI is still very good.
i'm having trouble seeing the head/shoulders pattern on 5yr chrt. is this it?
left shoulder = 10
head = 6
right should = 15
also -- i'm not a TA -- how do you arrive at 60$?
not crazy about pktr, was there an h&s top about 1 yr ago with big breakdown thru neckline? now it's bounced back up but has tumbled back to the neckline, could head down to 5. Look at vols, pktr hasn't had near the vols it did a year ago, whereas XXIA has huge interest the past 6 months or so. The 30 wk ma for xxia is still going up while pktr is kinda sideways switchbacking.
The pullback to the neckline is a classic buy point for a h&s bottom (of course i could be full of crap, but somebody has been buying for 6 months and unless all of a sudden they lose interest, they will keep buying)
I use Telechart which gives more than a 3 yr chart. Another thing is the RSI is good for xxia.
Then again fundamentals seem good, so in my book it's a buy
Guys the market is in the midst of a major correction right now. Even the big experts are flying by the seat of their pants these days...
Everything I have read over the past 2 months points to alot of conflicting data, the pattern in the market ahs been fairly unique and the selloffs and rally don't seem to make much sense.
FWIW I am sitting back on all my positions and watching and waiitng. Even though I am about a grand down on my equities, I am up greatly on my currencies (I am betting heavily against the dollar in Euro, Sterling and Yen).
The portfoilio I ahve is diversified as a get out, but unbelievably I am down on just about everything buy my BMY...
I have read like a maniac, looked at fundamentals and technicals and am at a loss to explain the selloff based on excellent earnings and stable future predictions...is it the news? Is it a market correction before the next legg up, is it the Fed jumping al over the map not giving any indication they will continue a measured approach? Is it the MMS manipulating Ixia and others so they can load the boat for their investors before the growth of 2005 - I really don't know...with a predicted U.S. growth rate of 3.5 - 4.0 %, I am inclined to think the MMs are getting ready for a second half 2005 significant move up on all the indices - Nasdaq included.
One thing I do know is panic is the worst thing and the quickest way to arrive at ruin. While the money I have in my porfolio I can afford to lose and not show substantial gains on for now, I know that is not the case for everyone. And so I am sitting back and waiting for a stong sign we are either coming into a correction and will be heading out later in the summer, or we are at the front phase of a bear period.
This see sawing abck and forth is frustrating, particularly when a good solid company with solid technicals and fundamentals moves through its 200 DMA.
Don't know about you guys, but this is nuts...
Good luck all!!
i'm an IBD subscriber, and i missed those signs as well -- but you have to admit that they were pretty subtle. hindsight is 20/20.
first -- the black bar -- how does losing the bar change the fundamental picture for XXIA? XXIAs fundamentals have improved and the company gave positivie forward guidance.
also, XXIA did't "crash" through 50DMA -- it moved below but in a pretty orderly manner -- especially given the heavy market selloff. it showed strength when compared to the rest of the market -- even now the RS-rating is still 89!
acc/dist rating -- this may have been the best clue -- but a C is neutral...not necessarily a red flag.
i think the clue that i should have been looking at, but kind of ignored, was the "group's technical rating"...currently a D+. look at PKTR and FFIV. in the same sector, both have great fundamentals, and both got a whooopin like XXIA. i'm going to pay more attention to this rating from now on :)
doesn,t change it for me, but we don,t know what i.b.d. puts in when they run the screen moving stocks in and out of that area.---just the fact that it dropped out might be viewed as a negative by many watchers.---i stand corrected,my use of the word crash is too severe, i will restate that to read slipped thru on avg. volume. --- i keep the last 30 days of the paper.---now look at the paper showing activity for apr.18--[d-][a][d+]stock is up a bit on less vol.----apr.19--[d][a][d+]stock is up on low vol. again.-----so now the acc. dist. had dropped to d+ and the group strength is at d and d- on these 2 days.-----were these more signs pointing in the direction of the friday sledding party???? you got that 100%-- that hind sight guy is smarter than all of us,i use his services all the time,look at the money he saved me here.<$$$>
The golden rule is to lighten up after it breaks the 50DMA on heavy volume. The problem is that what is considered heavy volume. If you had sold on Jan dip below the 50 you'd have missed almost 50% upside. This last drop below the 50 wasn't on heavy volume either but it never was able to get back above it except for brief periods. That is the point where I started tightening stops because the technicals had weakened. I was able to avoid the intraday drops and actually made a bit on buying the dips. Until yesterday. I was holding only 200 shares into the CC and after seeing the numbers and forward guidance I was confident that we were ok. Wrong. It was sell the news. Didn't have any stops in place. I had previously calculated that a 38.2% fibonacci retracement would get us to 14.50 and bought some shares at 14.75 thinking that was close enough. Then bought more at 14.31 and it bounced off it a few times intraday. Now I'm holding off to see if we reach the 200DMA at around 13. The problem is that if we are in an extended tech correction then it will be extremely diffucult to find the bottom. I think it COULD go back to 12-13 with some ST rebounds on the way. An oversold rebound is in order for the coming week but I believe there will be selling into the strength. I am going to wait for my last purchase until I see more confirmation of a bottom. I'm willing to hold what I have with a another possible 15% downside but I will be well positioned for next runup. That's all we can do for now.