Desperation. For the geniuses like Tony Hebert who got all excited, and called for opening prices like "above $150", and possibly rented a private jet for a weekend vacation in Hawaii on the news, just relax. Not only will CRM not see $150+ tomorrow, the charts appear to me(as I posted less than an hour after the open today), that CRM will literally NEVER see $150+ again. Ever. I truly mean that. Start learning how to read charts, longs. Because Microsoft or Oracle won't buy you all out on the bankruptcy court's steps, like they or someone else will need to do in the not too distant future to prevent CRM from declaring insolvency. Based on technical analysis (I mean tea leaves), I see the pre-earnings gap at $133.80 being filled by next Friday's close. Longs, if you get a 75c "pop" on this "upgrade" tomorrow - take it- and count your blessings.
And , NO, it hasn't seen "150+". Intraday high print 150.00. You longs almost got to jump up and down and say "I told ......." And on a day when it couldn't possibly have been easier to manipulate any stock - low volume, ahead of 3 day good weather holiday weekend, no major news events - even oppenheimer's blatant attempt didn't work. See you at $133 next Friday.
I have a friend in the board of directors of a major listed technology stock. It is a very profitable stock, worth only 1 times sales.
He told me what is (or should be) common knowledge: All the banks that underwrote the IPO or otherwise lend you money, will always write favorably about your stock.
In other words, if it means anything, it is that they have a vested interest to prop up the stock price.
Remember the dot.com craze? Or the solar craze?
The cloud craze will be in the same row in 4 years from now. A mature market where the hyped players of today were crushed and fell 90% or more. Look at JASO and collegues. From 25 to 1 in 4 years.
That's how fast you can lose your money in a hype.
They have to think of something important to say like:
was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform. $180 price target, Oppenheimer said. Fast organic growth.
Fast organic, how much good will is on the books?
The analyst should talk about their investing. Looking at salesforce.com financials it looks like they lost 490 Million investing last year and they have lost almost 475 million the first quarter. As shown on their Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows.
Why didn't they talk about this to investors?
OK, I had some pretty good teachers at the Institute of Finance, Alan Shaw and Ralph Acampora. This stock is making lower highs now and will be heading down to the $130 range, 50% retracement of move from $100-$160. Fundamentally, I have no idea why this stock is even at these bloated levels today. Market will make it's next leg down in a day or two.
Abbysss, keep working on that PHD, and I hope you get it and it adds immensely to your prosperity. If you've gone through all that effort, you most certainly deserve to benefit from it, and I truly mean that. You seem irritated with my message, I've learned (the hard way) that's an obvious sign of a losing position. In no way do I intend to hurt your feelings , or any longs, ever. I occasionally sense that one, or a few of you , seem to be very nice people, and I do my best to irritate you and at the same time try and educate you in order to get you to the right side of the trade. Am I always on the right side of the trade, of course not. But the majority of the time we are just trying to be on the right side of the next $5 move of a $100+ stock, so they are small positions. And , yes, even intraday technical analysis can help those positions profit, but they are entered as small positions. Example- like playing blackjack for nickles - you still want to win and you try to - but if you lose every single time, it's not going to change your life. Now that I have stated what I have, so you hopefully believe I am coming from a good place - this day for CRM was not "just another day". But, of course, you would have to really appreciate and understand technical analysis to realize this. I'm going to make a few more statements , not designed to hurt your feelings, but, seriously, to make you think. Here goes - if and when you get that PHD in economics/finance , will that make you a better market timer than most on wall street or in any investment bank ? Do you think there is anyone else on Wall Street or working for any bank that has a college degree, or masters degree, or PHD ? I'm a better trader than Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein, or Bernanke, or any of the Fed reserve banks heads could ever become. No doubt in my mind. Yet , I'm sure they are each extremely talented individuals. Abbysss , TODAY WAS NOT JUST ANOTHER DAY. Get on the right side of this trade. You will profit tremendously from it. If you just want to blow my messages off , because you think your soon to be realized degree (that you threw out to me as your reason for being right and my reason for being wrong - though you have no idea what my degrees are in) is going to majically make you a better trader, then I'll leave you with this Wall Street saying - "Not everything that makes sense, makes money"
Okay listen up. You're assuming way too many things about us posters that you are seeming to discredit. It's clear this stock is owned by institutions. They'll take it down when they decide to sell, not when the chart says they're going to sell. I'm all for technical analysis but CRM is like trading a casino. Lot's of money to be made, but sometimes the right move isn't the best.
JK, good to hear your thoughts...Like I said I dont claim to know whats in store..All I'm saying is these charts and TA only go so long..ultimately the market is stochastic and has a lot of variables that you cant account for..
PS:-I'm not long CRM..
You're stupid if you think charts can predict everything..If that were the case every mathematician will be a billionaire trader..Stock price action is a stochastic process that can never be predicted with accuracy...You easily forget the hundred times when charts fail miserably and remember the one good prediction..
RE:"Stock price action is a stochastic process that can never be predicted with accuracy".
That statement simply reveals your rediculous total ignorance of TA.
I suggest you educate yourself on what has been driving the markets since 1996. The NAZ crash of 2000 was entirely created by TA, and there has only been a MASSIVE increase in TA trading since that "test" began when the first trading bots were fired up took over the markets (back then they were called simply "black box buy programs". 1996 to 2000 proved how easily manipulated the electronic markets were. To explain this history and evolution would require a small book, but to say TA cannot prdict stock movements with any accuracy is total BS. It all BEGINS with fundamental analysis, but once that is factored in the TA patterns emerge very clearly and can be traded upon, in fact it is what most traders use, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Does not matter if you believe in it or not, it is the reality of the markets most of the time. Yes, nothing is 100% accurate due to news driven and political events, but speaking from my nearly 20 years experience I can tell you trading on TA works VERY VERY well, long and short.
Go pull up some any chart, in fact lets just use CRM...see how in bull mode it ALWAYS bounced off the 20dma, 50dma, 120dma. 20 and 50 are typical, the 120 is more specific to CRM, but all stocks follow certain patterns. Notice when CRM broke through the 120dma it then had a last gasp up (signal to begin a short position), then dove off a cliff!!
The recovery from $100 to $160 was a suprise I fully admit, the expectation was a failure (and right shoulder formation) at $150, but since CRM is so highly controlled/manipulated the push to $160 was not too hard to understand.
Just this week CRM bounced off the 120dma again, but is failing to get above the 50dma, so it is in a range.
I do disagree that a fall here is a forgone conclusion, since a Head-and_Shoulder never formed, and Double tops are more rare and tricky.
Unfortunately the Fundamentals here just plain stink like 3 month old dead fish, which is why I remain bearish.
Charts can't predict "every" movement, but they DO predict the MAJOR turning points (if you know how to read them). Today was THE MAJOR ROLLING OVER moment for this company from , of course, THE MAJOR BREAKDOWN POINT. Next major breakdown point is $93.00. If you think you've got a better plan, Abyss, then go for it. My money is where my mouth is.
Agree kahuna - Like your analysis JK but statements like that jinx us and we're sure to see 150 now.
I'm actually surprised it didn't go to mid 150's today so we'll see. Seems like this upgrade would have done more good last night. Still predict selling pressure on spikes.
You do realize that CRM almost made it to 150 this morning. It got up to 149 from 146 in an hour then succumbed to the wounds of NTAP and other clouds. You're an idiot if you think it won't hit 150 again. Doesn't have to be tmrw with option expiration but you never know what's in store at the wall street casino.
Kahuna, I don't have a crystal ball, but I know how to read charts as well as any one on the planet and as well as anyone that has ever appeared on cnbc. I often watch the "so-called" technical analysts that come on that show with their charts and their lines drawn , and just CRINGE. As they often start their lines from the wrong origination point, or do something elementary school stupid and draw a line connecting one single point in time to a current day price and try to declare that "a trend". That stated- Crm didn't go from "$146 to $149 today". It did just the opposite. It went from $150+ to gap down (with no upside gaps on the chart) to $149s , then traded to the $146s, then tried to mount a rally that , not only didn't go positive, but barely made it to $149 , $149.02 to be exact,while the overall market went higher and higher, and then crm rolled back over to a new intraday low. CRM closed at , essentially, the intraday high yesterday, after a phenominal last hour rally in the overall market. And all that did (as I posted yesterday) was take the stock up to resistance FROM BELOW and close there while taking the fast stochastics to within 2.5% of a maximum overbought reading, and yet , never got above resistance. That "resistance" in question, was THE BREAKDOWN POINT (and I've given the reasons why in real time from 30 minutes into the morning that it occurred 3 weeks ago and multiple, multiple times since). It's over, Kahuna. If you want to retain some capital, get out of this garbage.