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  • jkanalysis0 jkanalysis0 Sep 16, 2012 1:26 PM Flag

    CRM and AAPL are going to drop like a rock

    The next couple of months are going to be awesome. The only things holding up the market were Bernanke and Apple. Bernanke has spent his last bullet. By announcing endless MBS purchases, the Feds have no element of surprise. When the bad US economic news keeps rolling in, the market is going to tank. It may take a while to manifest but it is just a matter of time.

    I've told you this before, Apple's going to bring down the market. The iPhone market is approaching maturity. The only thing supporting their growth has been the expansion to new carriers but now the iPhone is already available on most networks. Expansion to the china market was one of their main growth factors but even this is slowing down. During the last earning report, the revenue from china dropped which is a sure sign of seasonality and maturation. Just look up iPhone sales trends on at&t and Verizon. Almost everyone who wants an iPhone in the US has one.

    The iPhone 5 announcement was just pathetic. What were the main new features? 5 inch screen? LTE? Other Android phones already carry these feature. Apple is just playing catch up. There is nothing significant to distinguish the iPhone from android phones from a user interface point of view.

    Sure, for the first month, there might be reports of strong iPhone sales. However, when the shipping times start dropping to 2-3 days, people are really going to wonder if the initial demand was coming mainly from the replacement market.

    My recommendation is to wait a month for the Bernanke and iPhone euphoria to dwindle and then open massive short positions.

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