Based on the revenue estimates 2013 is forecast to be the slowest revenue growth period in the past three years. And look at the drop off from 2012 to 2013. That's a 25% decrease in revenue growth.
On a day where everything rallied hard, and CRM badly underperformed, one has to question whether the market is starting to see it. I bought puts based on this analysis and the way CRM traded today. In the month of December and today CRM has double topped at around $172-174.
The problem is the market is pricing the stock at "extremely amazing" levels; not "amazing". When a stock gets priced for perfection like this one is, one minor slip-up or downgrade will send shares plummeeting. All I'm saying is proceed with caution up here. If we were trading in the $140-$150 range I wouldn't worry so much.
Finally! Some actual logic behind an opinion on this board. Thank you for doing some analysis before randomly spouting off price targets. I also agree with you opinions. Rev's are clearly slowing, CRM is facing increased competition from their big boy competitors ORCL and MSFT. Also, I know insiders sell for all kinds of reasons; however, if they truly believed their shares were undervalued or even fairly valued why would they be dumping thousands of shares every other day?
Actually the insiders are selling HUNDREDS of thousands of shares! Most of the insiders are pretty much cashing out of available shares. They understand that although the stock performance has been good, that the stock is overvalued.