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  • jkanalysis jkanalysis Jan 29, 2013 3:35 PM Flag

    Island Reversal Top in place for CRM

    Jan 28th, 2013 was the top. Enjoy shorts .... and keep shorting. Forget the split announcement. If Crm falls enough before the next board meeting - and I believe it will - the split may be called off. And if they actually do split - fine. The stock should sooner than most are thinking see $35. And if it splits 2:1 , make that 17.50, and if the 4:1 split remains - 8.75. And oh , btw, if Crm is around $130 before the next board meeting and it still splits 4:1, as if it wasn't a red flag enough that they've already proposed it, if they stick with it despite a massive fall, the SEC should be at the doorsteps the next morning as it is the last of the obvious DESPERATE attemtps at manipulation. PS - Amzn earnings in less than 30 minutes. Look out below - WAY BELOW.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • jkANALysis ... haven't you learnt your lesson yet ... you've been shorting since it was $100 ... give it up dude ! LMAO

    • of a classic structure. The gap down went deeper than the beginning of the gap up, and four weeks to earnings. That is plenty of time for cold feet to develop.
      Two days ago I took my profit a little eary at 174, and now sitting on puts to feb opex.
      Good luck to all, longs AND shorts, for timely trades.

    • so a split is illegal manipulation that the SEC will investigate? I had to check that the ID wasn't your imitator, deliberately trying to sound stupid! Go back to your charts, even though they were 100% wrong so far on CRM.

      What you and most do not get is: CRM is a Peter Lynch fundamentals stock! SFDC now is the leading provider of IT products. They are now the safe sensible choice for corporate IT. The cloud is more efficient than on-premises systems, and SFDC dominates the cloud market far more than I thought possible back in 2010. It's amazing how ineffective the competition has been. Amazon has the best chance because the cloud does not cannibalize their other business. Tonight's Amazon earnings will be very interesting for CRM investors.

      CRM's revenue growth will continue at the same rate at least until revenues are 20 billion/yr. Along the way, GAAP earnings will appear and cashflow will improve as SGA costs fall; it's easier to sell when you are the main provider. AppExchange products will become the leaders in most application categories. Just as 90% of everyone in business got a PC and Windows, everybody will have a Salesforce subscription. Shorts will be massacred repeatedly along the way.

      I am only on "Hold" though, because all-time highs are the wrong place to enter long; buy the dips.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to rastarich
      • To rastarich: my view on the split is to increase volume allowing the 82% institutions to unload and take their profit, while making the stock price affordable to the small ( unfortunate investor) who will be left holding the bag. Oracle is creeping up on them, not to mention SAAP, MSFT, IBM and others...its highly unlikely they will keep growing at 30% per quarter for much longer. And when the music stops...well we all know what happens. Eventually CRM will trade at a reasonable PE just like all the other big succesfull companies. Do your math and you will know where this may end up...its just a matter of much time, well that's the unknown..But I am very patient, as what goes up to the moon eventually comes down to earth.

        Just another SHORT's opinion.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • usual Rick you are drinking the bong water. Not even worth pointing out how many flaws aare in your post. Nice pipe dream.

        Sentiment: Sell

    • Hi JK, been a while. You totally nailed the miss in AMZN, yet after a $12 drop in Ah it is now trading $15 higher. Go figure. No manipulation in this market eh? Looks like somebody is trapped long and needs MM help to escape.

      Sentiment: Sell

      • 1 Reply to tahoe_kj
      • Tahoe, thanks for the "hello". Yeah, I'm saying to myself - "Now I've truly seen it all", after the Amzn miss on earnings, miss on revenues, miss on guidance, and technical plus fundamental pictur. Had I to make that Amzn trade a zillion times over, I'd make it Every Single Time. Zero regrets. Best wishes. I still expect to retire by end of 2014 by primarily timely put buying and shorting of Amzn, Crm, and Lnkd ( I know you are already there. My plans have not changed. "island reversal top" at the all time high securely in place on this accounting scam of a stock. Your and my patience will pay of magnificently on the crm short/put. See ya.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • do not listen to this guy. He's always wrong. Do not short this stock. You will regret it big time

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