What a wild day today...Had a lot on my plate...Watching spn & others...Wow!!!Lots of volume today!!!Do you remember the oil services run in 1997???Looks like I will be called away on XOM tomarrow...But that was a SAFE trade as I could make with a large stake in this mkt...as if anything in this mkt is safe...Nice break out here above 9 solidly...I need to get my teeth cleaned so off I go and I will post again soon...Stano
I was in SESI (now SPN) in 1997. I remember the run well. Oil and tech are risky right now. I think SPN is the best bet in this market right now though. I love proffitable companies with product demand in a tough market. I also love the discount stores & restaurants because people start penny-pinching when times are difficult to stretch a dollar.
Alot of people are losing jobs. America relies too much on foreign made goods now. I see inflation and a possible recession in the future, especially if North Korea gets a case of the dumb-chits (remember they have little food).
I'm liking gold more and more as a market hedge. I told you about RGLD. I don't like mining stocks or ingots, but I do like the royalty stocks as a hedge to more cash being printed to cover debt.
F.Y.I. I will buy SPN down to China in this war market. Not hoping that wells get torched, but betting that oil service companies get summoned to assist with clean-up and operations afterwards. The French and Germans & Russians certianly won't get the telephone calls to assist.
This war is not going to be a cake walk. We are better off "NOT" listening to retired generals speculate in interviews on TV. The Baath Party has extremists in it's ranks who are tenured, and do not have good directive communication with their superiors. They will do what they were last told to do in many cases if communication is broken. Remember L.A. is smaller than Baghdad.
Trade like you are walking thru a mine-field Stano. One reported release of Chem/Bio non-conventional weapons (even if it's against the Kurds in northern Iraq) and this market is toast. This looming scenario, combined with the trillions of dollars it will take to pay for all of this Iraq involvement is the reason that I like gold as a hedge.
Semper Fidelis, 5X
P.S. Stan, ya know... If you stay north of the border you won't have to get your teeth cleaned as much. LOL
Was busy earlier Shots...Looking to the future just a bit my friend...The debate about inflation versus deflation rages on...According to your post you are taking the position that inflation will make a come back along with a possible recession...I am curious about the possible effects of a rate rise in this country (banking and housing bubble as people pulled all available equity out)...It is a crazy time indeed...My position on interest rates is that they must rise ever so slowly as to not cause a disruption to the over leveraged fools in this country(Most of my neighbors are of the BIG HAT NO CATTLE VARIETY)...You know the type Shots...Sure they make alot of money but they have spent most of it long into the future...As discussed before...Sold all Zeros and moved to corporates & trying to build a position in prefferreds and selected equities...Purchased FSPHX under 100 several times recently as it is less volatile as the overall mkt...NOW THE BIG QUESTION SHOTS...Feet to the fire...Is this rally as cyclical bull within a long term bear mkt???The Oct lows have held...Yes I have always traded as though I was walking through a mind field because that is exactly was equities are...That is why I sold a small amount of my spy today as the dow moved over 1000 points in 8 days and just wanted to lock a bit in here...I may be a bit more optimistic on equities here but would look to sell another chunk of my spy at 990 level depending on the formation...I bought JTP yesterday at 14.42 as my first entry point and will try to sit on the yield knowing that interest rate sensitve vehicles could get hit hard here...I am long corporates and now prefferreds and I am wading through the whip saw mkt as you are...I missed buying SPN today already as it is recovering off the lows...Oil sensitive stocks up big today...You are doing your homework Shots and lay out your points very well...Protecting wealth is a full time job!!!I have put some of those stops that got hit a while ago back to work...Bob Brinker did make a great call last WED after being bearish for 3 years...Good luck Shots!!!Stano
Good news from the dentist Shots!!!I bring a glock 9mil with me every time to ensure a good report...Haaaaa...South of what border!!!LMAO!!!Your post is very interesting to me Shots...First I will say on HAl versus SPN I was only holding HAL (as I sold most of my nat gas plays on the parabolic move up)as an after war play on engineering and construction of infrastructure...I will get back to you after the mkt close...Just sold part of my long spy as it just started to rool over...Stano