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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

  • keybotthequant keybotthequant Dec 6, 2011 8:14 PM Flag

    VIX Weekly Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

    Volatility is not finished with the upside yet.

    The market bulls enjoyed the downward moves with the VIX during 2009, 2010 and halfway thru this year, with the only serious spike corresponding for the April 2010 market sell off. The falling wedges and positive divergence bounced the VIX upwards. The chart bottomed in 2010 and early 2011. The VIX spiked for the April 2011 market sell off, the fear reached elevated uneasiness at 48. The light blue lines show that the indicators wanted to see another price high, which occurred in late September as the market bottomed. The RSI and MACD histogram were negatively diverged which created the price spankdown and the indexes rallying but the green lines wanted to see another matching high. But, the VIX has worked steadily south inside the sideways pink triangle. There is unfinished business up above, perhaps a move up to the gap at 36 or even a return to the prior highs above 42.

    The 20 week is above the 50 week which is very bullish (market bearish). In addition, the 200 week MA is sloping upwards indicating continued overall upward price buoyancy. The 200 MA also disects the sideways triangle at 28-ish. The close today at 28.13 is above the 200 week MA at 27.82 which is bullish (market bearish). Watch the 50% levels for the indicators to see if bullishness is signaled, especially the RSI now at 49%, only a point away from verifying upwards momo. Projection is an upward move out of the sideways symmetrical triangle and continued sideways movement at elevated prices along the 200 week MA, obviously corresponding to lower and weak equities prices going forward.

    For VIX chart use search box above for keystone speculator.

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    • You get the KING IDIOT award on that analysis. Prepared to get SMOKED if you think equities are going lower from here. Let's start with the basics. Please look at the lagging indicator known to greenhorns as the MACD. The S & P is in the beginning of a bullish crossover in that camp. Read my other posts on the moving averages. S & P is going to steamroll over 1300 before xmas and probably much higher. What kind of tard-charts are you looking at anyway? Your "triangle" theory is funny though...


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