I keep getting shaken out and then buying higher than I sold. In this way I have "averaged up" from 45 to 47. It seems like 47 is a fairly good target for us to hit in the next couple months or so, do you agree? The net asset value closed at 35.60 which means that's only 30% rise. Probably need spot VIX to go up 55%, in other words to 26 or 27 in the next couple months. How realistic in your view?
My system still has me out and will for at least a couple more weeks BUT I would never, ever go long VXX UNLESS we had backwardation AND even then only after the initial pullback AND with a tight stop.
If you must express a bearish outlook at this time you should simply be short the market. You are still facing a 1% per week negative roll yield on a long VXX. Better odds at blackjack. I would not use index puts here because while out month expirations are cheap most strikes are deteriorating at roughly the same rate as VXX.
You do understand after the election on Tuesday this will drop at least $5. Do you not understand that the conclusion of the election removes uncertainty and therefore removes fear from the market? VXX will be in a decline until November 19th and then people will focus on the fiscal cliff and get all worked up for a couple weeks until the media gets tired of talking about it.
P.S. There is no fear in December everyone is in the Christmas spirit or on vacation...
If you haven't taken the time to look at a chart of the VXX and you can't understand how this works you are in big trouble. You already seem to be way overinvested in this constant declining ETF so you think by convincing others to join you in your demise you will accomplish something.
Spot on. Exactly what I was thinking. Take the uncertainty of the presidential election out of the way and people will be putting dry powder to work. And of course, the Santa Clause rally, where volatility usually makes a relative low. Not sure if we make it to new highs before the end of the year, though... What do you think?