I loaded up on june 13 calls at 2.65 friday afternoon. I've since been hosed about 15%, but I still feel good about this one. It seems there has been a huge sentiment change. I can barely find one negative article on any of the major finance web pages. I get (and agree) that we're in an uptrend, but a pause due to Syria, RBS,Fed #$%$ chat or China will drive the vix up in the next week or two. I'm closing at vix 14.50 when my options should be worth about 3 bucks, I'm not crash speculating. Any other vix options players in?
It will all depend on fed policy change rumors. If any confirmation that the fed may start tapering or consider winding down of quantitative easing earlier than expected, then we will likely get 3 to 5% pullback in the short term. Otherwise, just no reason for this bull market to back off! But, market always catches folks off guard, so something unexpected could also take the market down, but hard to predict that.
Something is going on. Cnbc alluded to a WSJ article that they decided NOT to print about how the Fed is going to start tapering QE. Melissa Lee was just talking about it on Fast. The Fed meeting in Chicago tomorrow might be dicey, and perhaps that announcement. I think they have to do something, they know the longer the bender the worse the hangover and we're on a good one. My best guess - a one to one and a half percent dip, a spike in the vix, and sideways trading to take over next week. Likely followed by more upside after. I have a funny feeling I'll be closing out my calls tomorrow.
Good thing you're in the June calls. Got some time to play with. I expect the high in VXX was probably today at 19.04 or whatever, but maybe you get lucky. Would sell your VIX calls at VIX of 15 for sure.
I bought the VIX June calls friday afternoon too. Look at a 5 year VIX chart. We are long overdue for a major VIX upswing (2 years since last one) and when it hapens it happens fast and hard. If it doesnt come through for me this time...I'll wait til Fall. Either way its gonna f#@*n happen...just a matter of time.