Anyone care to speculate if MNTA will settle with WPI and what it might look like? I find it hard to believe that WPI is comfortable launching at risk given the huge liabilities they would incur if they lost the patent trial. Roughly speaking if we conservatively assume $1 in EPS every quarter they are the only generic and if they can keep WPI off the market for 2 years then maybe a settlement is worth ~$8 to the stock.
Thanks for that post. It's definitely interesting to think about. Looks like the worst case is a delay until 2013 and I didn't consider a royalty. So if they can keep them off the market for 2 years and get a royalty then that seems like we're looking at $10+ on a settlement. It helps explain why people are buying options that don't pay off unless the stock moves 50% plus in the next couple of months. It could be that or they are betting that they win the patent trial against Teva for Copaxone.