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Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • fib1_1_2_3_5 fib1_1_2_3_5 Jan 31, 2012 1:19 PM Flag

    Still no re-launch from Amphastar

    Seams like they are going to wait for the CAFC decision on the PI appeal before launching, despite the stay on the PI. So what's next?

    In some number of weeks (estimates 2 - 12 I have heard) the court will decide the fate of the PI. Possibilities:

    1) The court upholds the PI. We are back to where we were last week, though slightly stronger in that the appeals court did not see glaring flaw in the case.

    2) The court overturns the PI based on lack of irreparable harm. If then:

    2A) Amphastar/WPI do not launch at risk. With the CAFC not disputing the trial judges assertion that MNTA is likely to prevail, they might decide the risk/reward is not worth the launch.

    2B) They do launch. Obviously MNTA revenue gets slashed for 1-2 years, BUT the trial is now a huge potential plus.

    3) The CAFC decides to toss the PI on other grounds, obviously Amph will launch in that case. This is the bad one, as we lose the revenue and the odds in the final trial go down (which also reduces the expected terms in a settlement).

    Swami says:

    1 or 2A) PPS goes back over $20

    2B) PPS drops to $13, but comes back over $15 as it gets mulled over

    3) PPS drops under $13 and stays there 'till something changes

    Of course, my Swami skills suck. I am 100% wrong whenever I do this :-)

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