I'm new to this board interested in FRX, wanted
to know what % of overall revenue is Celexa
producing? Also, and only my personal observation and
experience: I have been one of those "treatment resistant"
cases of Major Depression (still despise that word as
it is completely non-descriptive and unjust to the
disease) for over a decade.
Prozac, Zoloft, MAOIs,
ECT therapy (you name it) have been met with varying,
but little success. I was put on Celexa a year and a
half ago and it has been nothing short of a miracle
for me. As to some of what I've read on this board,
I'm guessing the talk of "apathy" means to describe
the typical malaise experienced with some
antidepressants (they take away the deep, horrifying pit of "it",
but leave one feeling flat and take away the ability
to experience emotion. I've had this experience with
some (namely Prozac), but Celexa doesn't take away the
feeling of being human and has very mild side effects.
Also, I've been under the impression that Celexa was at
least as expensive, if not more, than other
The two doctors I've been in contact with have
said that they've experienced nothing but success with
introducing this drug to more and more patients. I'm sorry to
drag on so long, but just wanted to give some personal
info on a drug that is actually saving lives and is
important to Forest and all the longs here.
"When you compare FRX to WLA/PFE/PHA, other
pharmas growing about the same rate as FRX, it's actually
FRX is growing in excess of 50 %
this year and will probably be well in excess of 30%
next year. WLA/PHE isn't growing that fast. PHA and
PHE are much larger companies. FRX is much, much
smaller, and it deserves a premium. And people are
thinking that FRX will blow past the earning estimates,
even though the earnings haven't been offically raised
yet.... the stock is acting like they will be raised
based on the higher than expected sales of Celexa.
The best prospect in FRX's pipeline is probably
the new drug they just licensed from Merckle GmbH for
the treatment of osteoarthritis.
"ML3000 is a
new entity in a novel class of dual-acting,
anti-inflammatory drugs called COX/LO inhibitors. These drugs
simultaneously inhibit the enzymes cyclooxygenase (COX) and
5-lipoxygenase (LO), both of which are involved in the
inflammatory process. ML3000 demonstrated an overall safety
profile similar to placebo at doses which were effective
in the treatment of osteoarthritis. The product
entered Phase III studies in Europe earlier this
per their press releases
This has the
potential to be a blockbuster as seen by the huge success
of both Celebrex and Vioxx in the treatment of
osteoarthritis. This really is a huge market because unlike many
other diseases, there is no cure for the long-term
degeneration seen in osteoarthritis. The only treatment
therefore, is chronic pain/inflammation management.
went ahead and bought a few shares today.
According to LLY's last 10K:
States compound patent covering Prozac expires in
February 2001 and a patent for the method of use of the
compound expires in December 2003."
I believe that
Barr Labs among others are suing LLY trying to get a
generic of Prozac out sooner... who knows what will
As to the direction of my possible investment, I
would go long if anything. I know that FRX is richly
valued compared to MRK/JNJ/LLY/etc, but I think that
even with the uncertainties out there that Celexa
should drive their growth for the next 2-3 years anyway.
When you compare FRX to WLA/PFE/PHA, other pharmas
growing about the same rate as FRX, it's actually fairly
In my opinion, FRX is not over/under valued right
now, but right where it should be... the biggest
question in my mind is can they maintain their multiple
with drugs in their pipeline. I'm pretty sure WLA/PFE
combo will have no problem, but right now FRX is being
driven by Celexa alone.
What is "legal marketing exclusivity"?
Jay, are you considering long, or my side?
Re: industry litigation is ubiquitous (sp?).
everybody sues everybody for everything in this business.
Most suits are intended to delay and deter
competitors, but often have little merit.
patent in 2001 or 2002? What will that do for pricing
SSRI drugs? I think it means prices go down.
I know Celexa is a successful drug, but I decided
to short FRX after seeing a huge insider stock
registration: CEO 1.3m shares, Pres.: 300k shares. In dollars,
that's about $140m of stock. When does Celexa go off
patent? Won't that event essentially crush the
profitability as FRX loses share AND prices decline? Also, when
does Prozac go off patent? None of the SSRI drugs have
faced generic substitution or generic competition
before. When that happens, won't the historical levels of
profitability decline dramatically as the drug firms engage in
expensive battles for market share? FRX should be
over-valued based on a 45 p/e, especially if the earnings
growth goes into reverse after Celexa, Prozac, and
perhaps others go off patent.
I acknowledge that my
research is incomplete and I jumped in perhaps
prematurely. Am I missing something?
Selling by insiders doesn't always mean that the
stock is headed lower. Howard Solomon, the head of FRX
sold 260,000 shares in November, 1999 at around 51-52
and now six months later the shares are significantly
higher. Sometimes when one holds allot of shares earned
through options, profits are taken periodically. So as an
indicator I don't think its thats strong. Celexa is set to
go off patent in a few years but the company is
working on extending its franchise with an improved
version of the drug to take its place. Because of its
favorable side effect and drug interaction profile versus
other SSRI's physicians may not
jump at prescribing
modestly lower priced generics if they are available.
Additionally, patients who are having success on Celexa will
not be switched to other brands for obvious
Presently, the sales trends are strong. Also, the break-up
of the Warner Lambert co-marketing agreement should
increase the bottom line flow of profits for FRX. This
cash can be plowed into other new products and
collaborations to extend its pipeline. Shorting stocks, in my
opinion, is gambling. Like the weather, there are too many
variables and extraneous unknowns to make a reliably sound
decision and put your money on it.
Amy Hogan of Blackrock Mid-Cap Growth Fund talked
about FRX on CNBC's taking
FRX will terminate its co-promotion agreement with
WLA regarding Celexa and regain full exclusive rights
to the drug.
Miracles do happen, and I'm glad to hear your
success!!, I have a brother who suffers from depression, so
the info is very helpful. Also, I'm not much of a
fundamentalist (purely technical) and to get some feedback about
FRX and its products is a bonus...
Thanx, and good