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FRX Message Board

  • idrathebsailing idrathebsailing Aug 9, 2000 4:25 PM Flag

    Irrational Market Response

    As a Clinical Psychologist, I can tell you that
    doctors do not prescribe anti-depressants randomly (i.e.,
    the cheapest product--even though insurance companies
    might pressure them to do so). More to the point,
    Celexa has clinically outperformed Prozac (and any other
    Prozac generic)with fewer side-effects and quicker
    clinical improvements. Thus, clinically, Celexa has shown
    to be superior to Prozac, and any Prozac generic,
    and doctors will continue to prescibe it. This market
    response, needless to say, makes me clinically depressed!

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    • Amazing how you know the outcome of an unfiled
      court petition. Please, oh informed one, tell us your
      stock picks. Do you declare your profits in the quarter
      prior to earning them? What will LLY be next Friday?
      Ohh, please tell us.

    • They will get the appeal and tie it up for 18 months. FRX will not roll over and die. Lay offs yes, but this company is cares about one thing and that is profits.

    • In My Humble Opinion, FRX would
      bounce back up
      to previous high
      by next week. This prediction is

      based on history.

      With George Bush leading Gore
      in the
      polls, Drug stocks could move up
      in
      anticipation. The positive trend
      for drugs could start right
      after
      labor day. Remember that the market
      always moves in
      advance of 'news'
      (Bush winning Nove election).

    • LLY has 60 days to file appeal. Could be
      adjuticated shortly after if appeal is denied. Only can drag
      out if they are granted appeal and that is iffy since
      the appeals court reversed the lower court decision.
      Pretty obvious you are still smoking. If FRX loses
      significant market share, yes, they may roll over and die. If
      will be questionable if the next generation of SSRI
      will be marketed if generic is available.

    • I have been involved in like situations. Do you
      think Lilly is going to roll over and die. Did you see
      what the stock price did today. Worst CASE frx GETS
      THE GROWTH FOR ANOTHER 15 MONTHS. DO YOU THINK FRX IS
      GOING TO ROLL OVER AND DIE?

    • How is it that you know how long Lilly's appeal will take? They may be denied an appeal. You're smoking.

      BTW, how long did this appeal take?

    • I'm a neuropharmacologist with a PhD from a
      Psychiatry Dept on the mechanism of action of
      antidepressants (and neuroleptics.. The bottom line is the
      prescribing practices of psychiatrists. I'd imagine that most
      patients on Celexa have been on Prozac (or Zoloft) before,
      and they are now on Celexa precisely because of the
      side effect profile. As you know, they would never
      return a patient to Prozac simply because it might be
      available in a generic form. That is not the nature of
      psychiatry, and thus will not be the effect on revenues.


      I was once a SEPR holder who bailed on fears of
      precisely this kind of court ruling. But this does not
      spill over to FRX in any significant way. If people
      want to be worried about SSRIs, then worry about NBIX
      with it's CRF antagonist. But that is years and years
      away.

      • 1 Reply to neuroguy_007
      • As a practicing psychiatrist who uses ssri's,
        snri's, etc extensively, I think that the Prozac ruling
        is problematic for all the pharm co's with ssri's.
        PFE and SKB, and for snri, AHP, will not be as hurt
        by this ruling as much as FRX because their drug
        portfolio is huge. FRX is deriving the lion share of its
        increasing earnings from Celexa sales. When Prozac becomes
        generic fluoxetine, a number of things will happen
        simultaneously that will be detrimental to FRX.

        Managed
        Care formulary companies, and insurers will expect
        physicians to try fluoxetine first. The reality is that in
        20%-30% of the cases, fluoxetine is perfectly adequate.
        In about 30% of the other cases, no other ssri will
        be better than fluoxetine. In probably 40-50% of the
        cases, another ssri will have a better side effect
        profile, or response efficacy.

        With the advent of
        the deeply discounted fluoxetine generic price (my
        guess is $.30-$.40 per pill versus $2.75 per 20mg
        Prozac cap), there will be competitive pricing pressure
        on the other ssri's. The market that Clexa is trying
        to claim is not only the disaffected other SSRI
        users, which, by now, is probably saturated, but they
        also want to be the first line choice of prescribers.
        In order to hold market share under this scenario,
        they will have to significantly reduce pricing,
        severely cutting into profits at a time when FRX has just
        recently added huge amounts to its marketing and rep
        costs.

        While FRX has some apparatnly excellents options in the
        pipeline, their most promising is the alternative COX
        inhibitor, memantine, and Dexloxiglumide, they need to pass
        some part of the regulatory process. For memantine,
        they need at least a NDA, for they other two they are
        in phase II and III. The startup time for almost all
        new pharmaceuticals is many quarters, so my guess is
        that before you see acceptance and prescription of
        these new products, you will see a reversal of the
        earnings momentum and a squeeze from expenses because of
        the need to support the recently expanded rep
        group.

        FRX also has, what appears to be probably the best
        management in the industry from my perspective. Solomon is
        really a superb CEO who has vision and a steady hand.
        FRX also has a presence in the generic producers
        market and stands to benefit from more demand in the
        generic market.

        Overall, I think FRX is an
        outstanding investment in the long run, but is significantly
        overpriced in the short to intermediate term given this
        significant setback. The timing was just terrible for
        them.

        BTW, I am interested in seeing the what happens with
        l-fluoxetine and r-citralopram, but I am really wondering
        whether there will be much significant difference in the
        side-effect profile to warrant change in physician
        prescribing habits. I have just not yet seen the info in the
        professional literature and this makes me wonder about SEPR,
        LLY and FRX's claims. If these formulations are
        significantly superior, for example, for sexual side-effect
        profile, etc, then regardless of the inroads of the
        generics, there will be a mass return of physicians to the
        traded and newly patented formulations. So if SEPR
        really has something in its isomer formulations, they
        have nothing to worry about.

        In the meantime, I
        unfortunately think stockholders will likely see $50 before
        they see $120.

 
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