Bunch of large longtime holders. Most think they have all they want. So if we find out on the 19th that ss188 is a discovery with likely production by the end of q1'13 , do you have enough ?
I liked this Q & A from the conference call:
Noel A. Parks - Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc., Research Division
I guess I wanted to ask mostly about Blackbeard West No. 2. I -- there was -- the mention that you had the one set of sands that you have logged and looked good, but then the other 80 feet of sands you said were in need of further evaluation. So just trying to get straight whether those were shallow or deeper. And also at Blackbeard West No. 2, just looking back, could you talk about the time period when you were getting below the salt weld? Because it seemed like that was sort of a longer, maybe difficult period. I just wanted to know if that was any indication of what you might see in future wells.
James R. Moffett - Co-Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Thank you, Noel. I usually put it in this way. I start the -- actually, drilling out from salt, there's 2 things that can be the answers to your question. When we drilled below the salt, as we had suspected, we got this cupola. Remember, cupola is a roof at the top of the -- of this structure. And that really should have sealed pressure so that it could not vibrate beyond the salt weld. Salt weld, W-E-L-D. And this welded feature, actually a trap to everything, including gas and hydrocarbons. When we drilled through the salt, sure enough, we went from a 17,000-pound environment to 19,000 pounds. So at 163 feet, we saw a 2,000-pound jump in the pressure. And that's -- so that has to be this trapped pressure we've been looking for. And this is -- I'll talk about it at first is we're still not really sure how we're ever going to complete if we try to complete the sands at [indiscernible] because the sands at [indiscernible] appear to be so deep and unconsolidated. And that was -- and that well seen here at the formation kept trying to flow on us. Our drillers call it coffee ground. But it had more gas and more volatility anywhere we drilled out there. So what we do with that 300, 400-foot section is under the salt. And when you say it was a tough drilling, it was typical of some of these sub-salt level zones because it took us 19-pound mud to get it settle down, which is really unusual even at these depths. So there's a volatile bunch of gas right down under the salt and we finally had it drilled up, and I mean, we worked several months getting that ladder down to it and getting it heeled off so we can get on down deeper. And when we drilled out to see the Middle Miocene sands and Lower Miocene sands, we got into a couple of zones and one of them had a heck of a mudload. So when we logged it, what we found is a section, what we call laminated pay. It had that much resistivity. And we had found [indiscernible] out in the deepwater and wells that we drilled, in this particular case, the so-called Ram Powell field. So -- but it's lower resistivity than normal production. That's why Ram Powell was such an interesting discovery. Ram Powell, by the way, produced 260 million barrels of oil. But as we drill deeper, we continue to get some sands. Some might now show some of that. But what's important is the sands that we've seen, even if it's the thin gas on water, appear to have gas and water there. That could mean that we have got to go up deep somewhere in this whole [indiscernible]. It could also mean that we just haven't gotten into the real material part of this. So we are drilling deeper now. We've got a couple of sands in the wells that we have not evaluated [indiscernible] wireline. We hope to do that when we get down below 25,000 feet. But once again, those sands that we haven't logged by mud logger, it had tremendous gas associated with them. And we had to stop and circle it out of our system before we can drill deeper. So the cupola feature, like the East Blackbeard feature and like Barbosa to the West, they've got a tremendous feel on them and we just got to get lucky enough to get a straightforward well above sand. I think you heard Richard say it on his call. These sands, we carry a 20% to 24% porosity at 23,000 feet. With all this pressure that they're exhibiting that we've had to use, by the way, to haul back, these say they're going to be tremendous wells.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Status of BBE development plan (come up hole & complete with conventional equipment) & Lafitte plan. I , like most long time MMR holders, only want to survive what has been a long disappointing road when evaluated in terms of time , risk, and stock price. DJ#1 will flow but unlikely to effect stock price much imho.
Only thing that changes the above is the long awaited industry partner. Otherwise, we all go back to DJ#2 completion watch. Yes, the two onshore wells would help but the majority of reserves are offshore requiring these expensive wells.
PPS will be determined by successfull wells. I am inclined that out of the multiple wells being done some will be of value. The second the successful tests are conifrmed then our stock will blossom. $2 in 2013 easy and double in 2014 then double in 2015
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am long both TISDZ & MMR--and holding. It seems to me there will be a pretty substantial bump when 188 is flowing. Question is, How Much is the bump--AND, given that the royalties will continue to flow for many years (passing to our heirs most likely), I do not anticipate price spikes to allow for much trading to occur. Thereby producing steady upward pressure on price. Similar to many of the MLPs in play that produce pretty substantial dividend plays with upward pressures.
Math is always fuzzy, so if some have some new estimates, these are always appreciated--one can dream can't they?