If the arbitration results in no changes to the settlement, then it will take a year for HGT to get back to paying a distribution at an annual rate of $1.00. If the the arbitration results in HGT paying nothing, then the distribution will be back to an annual rate of $1.00 in the next few months. Either way, the price of HGT will get back above 10 this year or next. I base this on the current natural gas, and oil, price and the projected price next year according to futures contracts. Owning HGT here at $7.04 makes perfect sense IMO.
Arbitration involves how much HGT should copay. Priced in is the 80% NPI share, so favorable arbitration would be a huge boost. Otherwise, its is a 28mm co-pay, which would end sometime next year, at which point you can expect about $1 dividend annually, based on current prices (and an 8% depletion rate). Currently trading at 20% discount to PV-10, which is rare for a perpetual trust.
I agree that it doesn't effect the settlement. But doesn't it effect who pays the money? If the arbitration is in the unit holders favor then XTO has to dip into its own pocket to pay the settlement. Yes or no?