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OCZ Technology Group AŞ Message Board

  • hakujinchad hakujinchad Jul 27, 2012 5:09 PM Flag

    why do you think STX would offer a HUGE premium to current SPP

    current SPP which is already inflated based ONLY on this rumor? I've seen a few M&As the last few qtrs, and the offer usually is not > 40% of current mkt price. this bad boy has already rallied more than that based on this speculation.

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    • WHY do you know how to value a Co. ??? . OCZ Market Cap 400 Mill $$$ Guided for full year revenues of 700 Mill $$$$ coming from last years Revenues of 366 Mill $$$ & 190 Mill $$$ the year before....BTW Revenue projected to go over 1 Billion Dollars next year & earn over $1.00 a share in EPS.... That would give OCZ a forward P/E of 6 ....

      Think about hyper Growth co.s in an emerging takeover technology trading at 6X's forward earnings ?? Typically hyper growth co.s trade closer to their growth rate which in OCZ's case would be over 75X's considering as of this moment OCZ trades at 1/2 the average S&P P/E you would think they have declining sales & earnings lmao.....

      Almost 24 million shares short have certainly helped in keeping OCZ cheap but appears the end is near for them as either Seagate buys them outright or Micron does an Equity investment of size into OCZ ....

      Micron investing say at least 100 Million $$$ would benefit both co.s in a big way. For Micron it not only locks up OCZ as a nand customer it will increase their nand sales in a sizable way, remember if Seagate buys OCZ then the nand buying goes to Hynix big loss for Micron.... For OCZ it's a game changer as it would mean instead of buying 12 weeks on nand to get the discounts they receive OCZ s/b able to reduce it to 6 weeks putting 50 to 60 million in cash back on the balance sheet PLUS the 100 Million from Micron....

      Why is this a game changer ??? Cause OCZ already stated will go cash flow positive in the 4th Qtr & armed with 200 million in cash would have no problems with the huge growth expected from enterprise deployments coming up.... Means game over for shorts & OCZ should start to command a normal trading multiple...

      What should a co. that has grown almost 100% a year for the last 3 years & projected to continue growing over 70% a year worth ??? 10X's forward earnings 15 ??? We all have seen co.s with far less growth rates then that garner forward P/E's between 20 to 30X's and much higher....

      Whatever happens next week with buyout talks OCZ should be put on everyone's DD list as Solid State Drives are taking over replacing long standing hard drives and it's not often investors get a shot at this type of growth at this low a valuation.... Remember OCZ just reported 113 million in Revenues this past Qtr in 2 more Qtr's they expect revenues to be double what they just reported over 225 Mill $$$ Wait till next year when Microsoft enterprise deployments start ramping....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for those taking the time to do proper DD........

      One last point to consider as the naysayers will spout OCZ cant make money LMAO....OCZ was profitable in the 3rd Qtr last year & made a CONSCIOUS decision to ramp R&D & marketing big time ...again on PURPOSE ... They easily could have kept the expenses at bay remained profitable & the story tellers would have to find other points to distort... OCZ team saw an opportunity to really get out in front of this SSD boom & become the market leader which required the shift in spending.... OCZ will be profitable 100% for sure starting in the 3rd quarter & profits will ramp hard along with revenue & margin increases... Do the DD read the filings & listen to CC's

    • Because if WDC gets them, STX will be the next RIMM. STX is getting a deal too at these prices, a heck of a deal

    • Its worth way more than a measly $1.14 billion to STX. If they miss the SSD market, they might all lose there jobs. With their resources, distribution and manufacturing, they can blow past $1b in sales this year.

    • no i have shares and options on this. just keeping it real. i also own seagate. so i know how those guys do business.

      what i am trying to get across to all these folks is IF seagate don't say anything before open monday, i bet you see this stock get creamed. also i am putting out some other logical things that can happen.

      i don't trust that theo to much into his wording, also one needs to watchout for what could happen. isn't that what the MB is for?

    • thats what i thought you were implying


      why so emotional and hostile to everyone here? lose some money today or somnething?

    • Why does ANY deal ever happen for huge premiums? Because the share price of any company at any time does not reflect the actual value of the business. The share price is heavily manipulated by the market makers, shorts, hedging strategies - you name it. The actual value of the business to an acquirer is based on their assumptions of future cash flows and ROI on the investment. Seagate clearly sees the future value of OCZ's real business as being far greater than the artificially suppressed "market" price of the stock. Simple as that. A couple of years ago Terremark (TMRK) went from $9 to $19 overnight because Verizon saw a much greater value to the business than the market was saying and invested accordingly.

      Pretty basic really. The "market" is run by thieves and crooks but ever so often you get to see them squirm when buyout deals like this happen and they get their heads handed to them.

    • The SP is below the value of the company because investors traditionally haven't believed in the company.

      OCZ has been aggressively burning money for R&D and to acquire market share, and investors have seen that to be a risky position for the company to take.

      This is why the "poison pill" was put into place. To prevent another company from acquiring OCZ below what OCZ's management and board believes it is worth.

    • i been modeling for 51-70% control at $8-10, i doubt stx buy for higher then that. this is being realistic.