I liked the article. It's fairly balanced, and I appreciate seeing an intelligent, balanced approach, even if I don't agree with all of it. OCZ has some great assets, but it is not without hair on it. Going long is a bet on a turnaround or buyout - but one that I don't think would be difficult for a competent management team, and we now know we have a board that will act and is independent of management.
I actually added to my position today, both through equity and options (partly because it became smaller as a percentage of my portfolio, allowing me some room to expand and still stay within certain diversification limits, but also because it looks very cheap here). I sold a bunch of $3 Jan puts - I really am not concerned about it going under 2.60-2.70 or so, which is my breakeven. Everyone is on one side of the trade now - there has been major capitulation by bulls, fear is rampant, and people are all bearish. Too many people on the same side of the trade. The market loves to act to frustrate the greatest number of people - that was the bulls before, now I think it will be the bears.
I find the valuations at 1-2 dollars a share laughable. When I read them it makes me pretty much discount anything the author has to say. 15 / share is pretty laughable too, though - let's be real. The company has assets and market share, and even if you just wanted to be in the consumer business, there is a price at which it's just cheaper to buy in. OCZ is dirt cheap and getting cheaper. Sure, WDC could build its own consumer division, but I'm not convinced at all that it would be cheaper to build than buy with OCZ at these valuations. I don't really expect a buyout though - but I do think that while near term we will see continued uncertainty, long term it will be a success story. I sleep easy with my position - and I'll be fine with a single or double, it doesn't have to be a home run.
Seeking Alpha is site where readers contribute the articles. I would take whatever they say with a grain of sale. They have written some crazy stuff in the past. I wouldn't buy or sell on any of their advice. They know as much as we do or less.
well it all has to be in regards to being sold so short term only...
1) parts of the company are worth more seperatly (one part of the company is worth at 250-400 million alone)
2) 80% institution own this thing and they want it sold i am sure now after this week events.
3) offer price would seem to be 700-900 milion range based on the assets they have that puts a price per share of 10-12
long term this company looks DEAD..